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Harshbarger, John W. (12)Davis, Donald R. (9)Roefs, Theodore G. (8)Bradley, Michael D. (7)Gum, Russell L. (6)Evans, Daniel D. (5)Qashu, Hasan K. (3)Simpson, Eugene S. (3)Duckstein, Lucien (2)View MoreTypes
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Computerized water distribution management for the Upper Pampanga River Project, Philippines

Aldovino, Lino Pineda,1945- (The University of Arizona., 1977)

This study is concerned with the development of a model for realtime water distribution management for rice crop production in the Upper Pampanga River Project (Philippines). The model utilizes a management technique which considers water distribution at the farm level on a system-wide basis under the constraints of the present users and the physical system situations. The intent of the project is to rely as much as possible on the available uncontrolled streamflows and rainfall during the wet season in order to minimize releases from the Pantabangan reservoir, and thus conserve most of the impounded water for irrigation during the dry season. A computerized model which incorporates a parameter prediction-correction technique is developed for calculating the daily water scheduling for the entire canal network of the UPRP. To determine how much water is needed, a daily water budget at each of the 2,216 rotation areas is performed in conjunction with the daily predicted uncontrolled streamflows, rainfall, varying water requirement, and water status at the farm level. Subsequent delivery correction schedules are determined based on the degree of the prediction error. Studies were conducted for the determination of the appropriate rainfall prediction scheme used in the scheduling model. Selection of the scheme was done through simulation of field operations at the farm level and by the application of the rainfall-use efficiency criterion. Time lags along the Pampanga River and the canal network were analyzed to determine the possibility of supplying the entire network from the Pantabangan Dam within 24 hours. The idealized solution of the problem of inequitable distribution of water within a rotation unit is also presented. The ability of the model to provide situation-and-user-oriented guidelines for water distribution activities is demonstrated.

Applications of Box-Jenkins methods of time series analysis to the reconstruction of drought from tree rings

Meko, David Michael. (The University of Arizona., 1981)

The lagged responses of tree-ring indices to annual climatic or hydrologic series are examined in this study. The objectives are to develop methods to analyze the lagged responses of individual tree-ring indices, and to improve upon conventional methods of adjusting for the lag in response in regression models to reconstruct annual climatic or hydrologic series. The proposed methods are described and applied to test data from Oregon and Southern California. Transfer-function modeling is used to estimate the dependence of the current ring on past years' climate and to select negative lags for reconstruction models. A linear system is assumed; the input is an annual climatic variable, and the output is a tree-ring index. The estimated impulse response function weights the importance of past and current years' climate on the current year's ring. The identified transfer function model indicates how many past years' rings are necessary to account for the effects of past years' climate. Autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) modeling is used to screen out climatically insensitive tree-ring indices, and to estimate the lag in response to climate unmasked from the effects of autocorrelation in the tree-ring and climatic series. The climatic and tree-ring series are each prewhitened by ARMA models, and crosscorrelation between the ARMA residuals are estimated. The absence of significant crosscorrelations Implies low sensitivity. Significant crosscorrelations at lags other than zero indicate lag in response. This analysis can also aid in selecting positive lags for reconstruction models. An alternative reconstruction method that makes use of the ARMA residuals is also proposed. The basic concept is that random (uncorrelated in time) shocks of climate induce annual random shocks of tree growth, with autocorrelation in the tree-ring index resulting from inertia in the system. The steps in the method are (1) fit ARMA models to the tree-ring index and the climatic variable, (2) regress the ARMA residuals of the climatic variable on the ARMA residuals of the treering index, (3) substitute the long-term prewhitened tree-ring index into the regression equation to reconstruct the prewhitened climatic variable, and (4) build autocorrelation back into the reconstruction with the ARMA model originally fit to the climatic variable. The trial applications on test data from Oregon and Southern California showed that the lagged response of tree rings to climate varies greatly from site to site. Sensitive tree-ring series commonly depend significantly only on one past year's climate (regional rainfall index). Other series depend on three or more past years' climate. Comparison of reconstructions by conventional lagging of predictors with reconstructions by the random-shock method indicate that while the lagged models may reconstruct the amplitude of severe, long-lasting droughts better than the random-shock model, the random-shock model generally has a flatter frequency response. The random-shock model may therefore be more appropriate where the persistence structure is of prime interest. For the most sensitive series with small lag in response, the choice of reconstruction method makes little difference in properties of the reconstruction. The greatest divergence is for series whose impulse response weights from the transfer function analysis do not die off rapidly with time.

Strategies to improve water management in Mexican irrigation districts : a case study in Sonora

Palacios Vélez, Enrique,1933- (The University of Arizona., 1976)

Few studies have been made regarding the efficiency of water use in irrigation systems in operation. Therefore, in this work the search for methodologies to evaluate the actual efficiency of water use in a Mexican irrigation district as well as methods which may improve this efficiency is emphasized. The work has been divided into four parts. In the first part, the analysis of the economic activities in the irrigation district by means of linear programming has permitted finding the marginal productivity of water which is used as a shadow price for economic evaluation of the operating rules. In this part a relationship between the marginal productivity of water and the conveyance efficiency has also been found. In the second part, using hydrological historical data and a pattern of monthly water demand for crops obtained in the first part, control curves of the reservoir levels which permit knowledge of the probability of risk of spill and shortage were computed. Utilizing these curves and a simple linear programming model for finding the optimal economic annual average release, operating rules for the reservoir have been deduced. These rules were tested by means of a simulation model and their economic effectiveness was estimated using a benefit-cost analysis, showing a significant improvement in benefits for the farmers as a consequence of using these rules. In the third part, the conveyance losses in the canal network are analyzed using a linear regression between releases and deliveries. The proposed model permits an estimation of the conveyance efficiency and its division into two component factors, the intrinsic efficiency directly related to the physical characteristics of the canals, and the operational efficiency related to water management in the canal network. Knowing these components, it is possible to classify the conveyance losses as well as deduce operating rules for improving the operational efficiency. In making decisions about the methods to be used for improving the conveyance efficiency, benefits and costs must be taken into account. Therefore, a practical relationship for evaluating the economic feasibility of lining canals, considering those benefits and costs, is found as well as a method for economic evaluation of the operating rules. Finally, in the last part of this work, a practical methodology for estimating the application efficiency at the farm level in an irrigation district and small divisions as well is shown. This method is useful in finding where the problems in water use are more important within the district and which could be their principal causes. Utilizing data from experiments, which are available in most of the Mexican irrigation districts, production functions relating yields of crops to the amount of water applied and the percentage of moisture depletion in the soil before and during the flowering season of the crop, have been found. These functions can be used not only for obtaining the optimal economic depth of water to be applied and irrigation timing but also for deriving the optimal water use efficiency, whi6h, when related to actual values of this water efficiency in each subdivision of the district, permits the deduction of a practical water use efficiency index which is useful for detecting where the problems in water use are and what are the potential returns for the farmers in each of the considered subdivisions.

Coupling stochastic and deterministic hydrologic models for decision-making

Mills, W. C.(William Carlisle) (The University of Arizona., 1979)

Many planning decisions related to the land phase of the hydrologic cycle involve uncertainty due to stochasticity of rainfall inputs and uncertainty in state and knowledge of hydrologic processes. Consideration of this uncertainty in planning requires quantification in the form of probability distributions. Needed probability distributions, for many cases, must be obtained by transforming distributions of rainfall input and hydrologic state through deterministic models of hydrologic processes. Probability generating functions are used to derive a recursive technique that provides the necessary probability transformation for situations where the hydrologic output of interest is the cumulative effect of a random number of stochastic inputs. The derived recursive technique is observed to be quite accurate from a comparison of probability distributions obtained independently by the recursive technique and an exact analytic method for a simple problem that can be solved with the analytic method. The assumption of Poisson occurrence of rainfall events, which is inherent in derivation of the recursive technique, is examined and found reasonable for practical application. Application of the derived technique is demonstrated on two important hydrology-related problems. It is first demonstrated for computing probability distributions of annual direct runoff from a watershed using the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS) direct runoff model and stochastic models for rainfall event depth and watershed state. The technique is also demonstrated for obtaining probability distributions of annual sediment yield. For this demonstration, the deterministic transform model consists of a parametric event-based sediment yield model and the SCS models for direct runoff volume and peak flow rate. The stochastic rainfall model consists of a marginal Weibull distribution for rainfall event duration and a conditional log-normal distribution for rainfall event depth given duration. The stochastic state model is the same as employed for the direct runoff application. Probability distributions obtained with the recursive technique for both the direct runoff and sediment yield demonstration examples appear to be reasonable when compared to available data. It is therefore concluded that the recursive technique, derived from probability generating functions, is a feasible transform method that can be useful for coupling stochastic models of rainfall input and state to deterministic models of hydrologic processes to obtain probability distributions of outputs where these outputs are cumulative effects of random numbers of stochastic inputs.

Analysis of factors controlling groundwater flow for prediction of rates of groundwater movement and changes in quality, Atlantic coastal plains.

Ganus, William Joseph,1936- (The University of Arizona., 1972)

The development of an open pit phosphate mine in 1965 near Aurora, North Carolina, required groundwater withdrawals in excess of 50 million gallons per day for pressure relief from the underlying confined Castle Hayne aquifer. The effects of pumping from this limestone aquifer were widespread, extending over an area of more than 2,000 square miles in the first year before the pressure cone reached a stabilized condition. Salt water encroachment by lateral movement from downdip in the aquifer and by downward leakage from the Pamlico Estuary and Sound was possible if prolonged pumping were permitted. A joint project between state and industry in 1970-71 focused on analyzing the effects of five years of pumping for the purpose of making projections of future conditions of groundwater quality for continued and expanded groundwater development. The present study describes the method of flow net analysis used in the joint project to determine quantitatively the values of aquitard vertical permeability and aquifer transmissivity. These values provided the rational basis for making projections of groundwater movement and quality changes associated with this movement, A hydrologic projection model, developed in the present study, integrates the quality and volumetric flow of vertical leakage with that of lateral flow. Projection analyses are presented for two hypothetical cases of chloride distribution changed by continued pumping and for chloride changes associated with three different pumping regimes in the subject area.

Effect of urban street pattern on drainage.

Kao, Samuel Erh-chiang,1944- (The University of Arizona., 1973)

In cities, storm runoff is usually collected in the streets and conveyed to underground storm drains through inlets located at street level. Construction and maintenance of storm drain systems is always expensive. In semiarid regions with a very low frequency of storm occurrence, most cities use streets as the drainage route even though their primary function is for the movement of traffic. As a result, the shape of a runoff hydrograph at the outlet of an urban watershed will vary with the pattern of street arrangement within the watershed. The objective of this study is to investigate tradeoffs between alternative street patterns with respect to urban drainage. The study area is confined to residential subdivisions where the subdivision boundary is assumed to be the watershed boundary. Three street patterns, namely, rectangular, curvilinear and dendritic, are considered in this study. The cost-effectiveness technique is employed to give an objective evaluation for these three alternative patterns. The effectiveness is measured by three kinds of evaluators. The first evaluator is the flow depth at certain points on the streets; the second evaluator is the total time during which the streets are occupied by a certain depth of water; the third evaluator is the total cost associated with the construction of a street pattern. A framework of a distributed system model has been constructed for simulating the runoff hydrographs and flow depths at certain points on the streets. A parcel of land near Willcox, Arizona, is selected to illustrate how the model could be used. Possible subdivisions of the land for each of the three different types of street patterns are shown, and the runoff hydrographs and flow depths from each of the patterns are examined. It is found that the peak flow rate resulting from the rectangular pattern is 13 percent higher than that from the curvilinear pattern and 29 percent higher than that from the dendritic pattern. The dendritic pattern has the smallest percentage of street intersections occupied by water during a storm. Time of occupation of high water stages at street intersections is much shorter in the dendritic pattern than that in the rectangular and curvilinear patterns. The development cost for the dendritic pattern is the lowest among these three patterns. Therefore, the dendritic pattern appears to be the best type of street arrangement in terms of urban drainage.

Groundwater in the Navajo sandstone : a subset of "Simulation of the effects of coal-fired power developments in the Four Corners region"

Dove, Floyd Harvey. (The University of Arizona., 1973)

Energy developments in the Southwest have established a basis for the examination of complexities involved in environmental decision making. The coalfired generation facilities exhibit an impact potential on the social, physical, and economic surroundings of both local and distant communities. A recent seventeen-volume report directed by the U.S. Department of Interior, The Southwest Energy Study, is an indicator of the magnitude of the situation. The Four Corners Program is a team research project with emphasis placed upon technology transfer. Simulation models are used to estimate the physical, economic, and social effects of a range of decisions concerning alternate power schedules. The research results are communicated to interest groups in other than the usual report form. A workshop environment allows the participants to interact with the decisions, the models, the results, and one another. One of the simulation models is the groundwater model. The groundwater model is used to estimate head declines in the confined and unconfined portions of the Navajo Sandstone and the Mesaverde Formation on Black Mesa. The Mesaverde Formation is found to be isolated from the Navajo Sandstone by the Mancos Shale and other intervening layers. A simulation routine developed by the Illinois State Water Survey is modified and adapted to the problem. As a result of the small amount of published aquifer data, minimum or below minimum values of aquifer properties and a sensitivity analysis were incorporated into model considerations. Pumping rates and pumping durations of groundwater for slurry transfer of coal define the decision space. The mining pumpage will have a negligible effect upon the Indian wells located in recharge areas of the Navajo Sandstone. The effects of mining pumpage upon potentiometric surfaces in the artesian portion of the Navajo Sandstone will range from zero to twenty percent of the artesian head, depending upon location and aquifer properties. Theoretical effects of groundwater pumpage on four monitor locations are quantified in terms of ranges of variation. These results can help to evaluate development plans for decision makers and other interest groups. With the future acquisition of measured drawdowns, consideration of theoretical and actual results can provide additional precision to aquifer parameter estimates. The Four Corners Program has a two year duration. The goal of the first year effort was the completion of simulation modeling. Beyond technical or prejudicial hurdles, the workshop encounters will require a public relations and communications posture which is conducive to group participation. The effectiveness of simulation as a means of technology transfer to a variety of users is yet to be evaluated.

Analysis of a multipurpose water resource system in southeastern Mexico.

Kunkel, J. R. (The University of Arizona., 1974)

Justification for the construction of water resource projects in developing countries has been traditionally based on benefit-cost analysis. This dissertation focuses on the standardized cost-effectiveness analysis for the planning, design and operation of water resource projects in developing countries and in particular southeastern Mexico. The "best" system is determined in terms of goals which reflect the physical, economic and social conditions of the region. The planning process starts by identifying goals which the water resource system or systems are desired to meet. These goals are then mapped into specifications in which the project needs are represented. Next, criteria or measures of effectiveness relating specifications to system capabilities are defined. These criteria are quantitative and qualitative. District alternative systems to meet the goals are defined and then their capabilities in terms of the measures of effectiveness are determined. The alternatives are then compared using both quantitative and qualitative measures of effectiveness. Then, using either a fixed-cost or fixed-effectiveness approach, the alternative system which most nearly satisfies the desired goals is selected. This study uses a real water resource system from which real decisions will be made. The methodology suggests improved ways of defining goals and criteria in developing countries and sets forth a concise framework upon which developing countries may base future water resource planning, design and operation.

Design of water resources systems in developing countries : the lower Mekong Basin.

Chaemsaithong, Kanchit,1940- (The University of Arizona., 1973)

This study focuses on the design of water resources systems in developing nations with particular reference to the development of water resources in the Lower Mekong Basin (Khmer Republic, Laos, Thailand, and Republic of South Viet-Nam). The determination of the "best" system in terms of social goals reflecting the economic and social environment of the Mekong countries is the main issue of this dissertation. The imperfection of the usual technique for planning water resources systems, namely, cost-benefit analysis, leads to the use of the standardized cost-effectiveness methodology. To illustrate how the design is accomplished, two distinctly different structural alternatives of possible development in the Lower Mekong Basin are defined. The design process starts from the statements of goals or objectives of water resources development, which are then mapped onto specifications sets in which social needs are represented. Next, the capabilities of alternative systems are determined through simulation in which three 50-year sequences of synthetic streamflow are generated by a first order autoregressive scheme. The two alternatives are then compared using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. To illustrate how a decision in selecting an alternative system could be reached, ranking of criteria by order of preference is demonstrated. With the choice of either a fixed-cost or fixed-effectiveness approach, the decision to select the best alternative system could be made. At this point, the use of a weighting technique, which is a common fallacy of systems analysis, will be automatically eliminated. The study emphasizes that a systematic design procedure of water resources systems is provided by the standardized cost-effectiveness approach, which possesses several advantages. The approach will suggest and help identify the system closest to meeting the desired economic and social goals of the developing countries in the Lower Mekong Basin. In this connection, the approach will help governments in the preparation of programming and budgeting of capital for further investigations and investments. It is believed that the approach will eliminate unnecessary expenses in projects that are planned on an individual basis or by methods used at present. Further, the approach provides an appropriate mechanism for generating essential information in the decision process. Both quantifiable and non-quantifiable criteria are fully considered. The choice of a fixed-cost or fixed-effectiveness approach will determine the trade-off between these criteria. The study recognizes that research to determine appropriate hydrologic models for monthly streamflow generation for tributary projects in the Basin is necessary. This leads to another important area of research which is to find the appropriate number of monthly sequences of streamflow to be generated in relation to number of states and decision variables. Research on the design of computer experiments is necessary to improve simulation as a tool to estimate the quantitative effects of a given project.

Cognitive strawman : public input to a water resource planning system

Judge, Robert Michael,1941- (The University of Arizona., 1975)

The purpose of this research is to develop an information system to input public values into the planning and evaluation process. A hierarchy of goals is developed and disaggregated until terms meaningful to the general public, and describing the state of the world, can be input to the disaggregation. The relationship between the planning process and the public values expressed by the terms describing the state of the world is discussed. A function is hypothesized to quantify one measure of perceived well-being. The application of the quantifying function to the general public and to sub-groups of the general public is discussed. The conventional scaling techniques of ranking and rating are discussed and compared with a general allocation technique and other psychologic scaling methods to estimate the parameters of the quantifying function. A power function is tested against the satisfaction ratings given a group of samples of water of varying clarity. The parameters thus estimated are significantly greater than zero. The general allocation technique was used to recover the parameters of the quantifying function and compared to the parameters estimated by the regression analysis. The general allocation technique showed promise as a means of recovering the public values. The general allocation technique was then applied to determine the goal and sub-goal preferences of subjects in Arizona and the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. The research indicates that community values can be input to the planning process by use of the disaggregated goal structure and the quantifying function. The general allocation technique, used in a mail survey, shows promise as a means of recovering community preferences. The disaggregation of community goals may provide a means of linking the technical criteria of the professional and the values and goals of the general public. The development of a hierarchy of goals may provide an additional tool for decision makers and professionals in their analysis of public values.

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