• A Comparative Study of Broadcast and Print Coverage in Three Criminal Cases

      Hudson, Lisa Rae (The University of Arizona., Not availa)
    • Liberation: The Story of a French Daily

      Herrera Cruz, Ignacio (The University of Arizona., Not availa)
    • Symbiosis in the Context of an Invasive, Non-Native Grass: Fungal Biodiversity and Student Engagement

      Lehr, Gavin Charles (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Grasslands in the western United States face severe environmental threats including those brought about by climate change, such as changes in precipitation regimes and altered fire cycles; land-use conversion and development; and the introduction, establishment, and spread of non-native species. Lehmann’s lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) was introduced to the southwestern United States in the early 1900s. Since its introduction, it has become the dominant grass in the mid-elevation grasslands of southern Arizona, including the Santa Rita Experimental Range (SRER), where it has displaced native grasses including Arizona cottontop, three awns, and gramas. Like all plants in terrestrial ecosystems, this grass harbors fungal symbionts that can be important for its establishment and persistence. This thesis focuses on fungal symbionts of Lehmann’s lovegrass and has two components. First, the diversity and distributions of endophytes in Lehmann’s lovegrass are evaluated in the context of biotic and abiotic factors in the SRER. Culturing from roots and shoots of Lehmann’s lovegrass at points beneath and outside the canopy of native mesquites, which are encroaching on grasslands over time, provides insight into how a single plant species can exhibit local variation in the composition of its symbionts. Second, the thesis is used as the basis for engagement of students in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) through the development and implementation of classroom- and field activities centered on endophytes, which help high school students address core learning aims while also gaining real research experience. Engaging students in important questions relevant to their local environment can catalyze interest in science and help students cross the threshold into research. The contributions of such approaches with respect to learning not only fulfills key next-generation science standards and common core objectives, but provides students with a meaningful introduction to the excitement, importance, and accessibility of science.
    • Freeform Metrology Using 2D Contact Profilometry and Specialized Fixturing

      Scordato, Michael (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Advancements in the design and fabrication of optics are pushing the limits of metrology. Freeform surfaces are becoming more common through the provision of non-symmetric corrections to a system’s wavefront. This may result in improved performance with less optical elements in a system’s design. Fabrication tools have been developed, yet the measurement techniques and drawing specifications of these surfaces are not well defined. There are several approaches to characterize a freeform lens. Profilometry is a common method to measure the profile of an optical surface by using a calibrated stylus. 2D profilometer instruments are popular due to their affordability and versatility. An investment is required to increase a contact profilometer’s capability for 3D aspheric surfaces. This paper will focus on expanding a 2D contact profilometer’s capability by using a specialized fixture with references to map multiple tracings in software. In addition, the fixture will also characterize the centration of the optic. This paper compares the results found with various metrology instruments. The specialized fixture was measured with a 2D contact profilometer to provide full surface characterization of the freeform optic. An advanced 3D profilometer was used to provide measurements for evaluation. Included will be a discussion comparing the freeform data gathered from the different instruments to expected performance using a spherical lens.
    • EVALUATION OF VIRAL FATE DURING ANAMMOX TREATMENT OF MUNICIPAL WASTEWATERS

      Foster, Aidan Richard (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Conventional secondary treatment of municipal wastewater designed to achieve biological nutrient removal typically utilize methods of nitrification-denitrification to convert ammonia to nitrogen gas to reduce the environmental impact of human wastewater streams. However, this process requires high energy inputs while also producing greenhouse gases. An alternative nitrogen treatment process is possible that treats nitrogen through anaerobic ammonia oxidation (Anammox) which has been reported to have numerous benefits over conventional treatment. While the effect of conventional secondary treatment has been evaluated for its effects on human enteric viruses, the effect of anammox systems on these microbes is undocumented. Through a joint venture between the University of Arizona, Pima County Wastewater and the Water and Energy Sustainability Technology (WEST) center, two different anammox reactors will be established and assessed for their effects on viral fate. Three human enteric viruses (adenovirus, enterovirus, and reovirus) will be monitored as well as evaluating possible indicator organisms to monitor human enteric virus in anammox systems.
    • Environmental Contamination from Glove Disposal Practices

      Munoz, Kimberley (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Purpose: Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) provides a barrier between health professionals and pathogens. Misconceptions related to PPE and its role in environmental contamination, may lead to risky behaviors and/or perceptions in healthcare professionals due to broken barriers of protection. Evidence suggests that doffing and disposal of used PPE can lead to environmental contamination. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the potential for environmental contamination when medical gloves are flung, tossed, or thrown; while using a harmless PR772 bacteriophage and fluorescent dye tracers. The objectives of this study were to 1) measure the overall spread of bacteriophage and fluorescent dye from glove disposal to the surrounding environment; 2) determine the contamination along the glove flight path and the distance from the health professional; and 3) compare the occurrence of bacteriophage and fluorescent dye in the vicinity of glove disposal. Methods: Fifteen Health Professionals flung, tossed, or threw PR772 and fluorescent dye contaminated gloves into a wastebasket, located 1.22 m away. Twenty designated sample areas were set up along the glove flight path, along a wall behind the wastebasket and outside the flight path that represented equipment within a patient room. Following each glove disposal trial, designated Sample Areas were: 1) visually inspected with a blacklight to quantify the fluorescent dye stains and 2) swabbed with a 3M Letheen Broth sponge to quantify PR772. Results: The mean of PR772 contamination from all sample areas was 4.22 log10 PFU/mL. The area closest to the participant (<0.30 m) had the highest PR772 concentrations (mean = 2.61 log10 PFU/mL; range -0.3 to 6.32 log10 PFU/mL). The sample areas within the first 0.61 m of the health professional were statistically higher (p< 0.05) than ≥0.61 m for PR772 and all sample areas, < 0.61 m, were positive for both tracers. Based on the fluorescent dye’s ability to predict the presence absence of viral tracers, it was found to be an appropriate surrogate when used as a teaching tool for PPE disposal scenarios. Conclusion: Among medical personnel, gloves are used every workday and have the potential to contaminate the surrounding surfaces during improper disposal practices. Therefore, proper disposal techniques are required to minimize pathogen transmission. Due to limited education/training, and non-compliance with glove disposal recommendations, health professionals flinging gloves into the wastebasket can contribute significant pathogen contamination within 0.61 m around themselves, with a possibility of contaminating up to 1.52 m. Establishing industry-wide policies, adequate training and education to health professionals on appropriate glove disposal can reduce the spread of microbial contaminants and reduce exposure risks to patients and personnel.
    • The Role of Dissolved Organic Matter on the Mobilization of Arsenic from a Legacy Mine Tailings Site

      Bozeman, Lauren R. (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Legacy mine sites are of concern due to their prevalence and associated environmental and human health risks. The United States Bureau of Land Management estimates as many as 500,000 abandoned mine sites in the US (BLM, 2017). Sites requiring costly management and long-term response to the environmental hazardous risks can be designated to a National Priority List (NPL) by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) (EPA, 2017). One such site, located in Central Arizona, is the Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund Site (IKMHSSS). The site was designated to the NPL in 2008 due to concerns regarding the size of the tailing pile, the proximity of contaminated materials to the town of Dewey-Humboldt and waterways, and the dangerous concentrations of arsenic (As) and lead (Pb) of the tailings (EPA, 2017). Remediation efforts have been ongoing since the designation of the site to the NPL, including sampling, yard soil removal, and distribution of information to the local community regarding risks from the site. The University of Arizona Superfund Research Program (UA SRP) has conducted greenhouse and phytostabilization studies of the site in an attempt to understand the processes and mechanisms employed to stabilize the tailings materials as well as reduce dust emissions from the tailings to the town of Dewey-Humboldt (Gil-Loaiza et al., 2016). This effort has successfully demonstrated a reduction of dust emissions (Sáez, 2016), however chemical changes to the tailings due to phytostabilization are the focus of this research. This work attempts to ascertain whether adverse effects from the method of phytostabilization are observed in the pore waters of the tailing material, in particular the potential for contamination of water sources by mobilized As through chemical or microbiological means. Recent studies have proposed potential mechanisms that can promote mobilization of As by dissolved organic matter (DOM) (Mladenov et al., 2015). Heterotrophic microbial respiration under O2 limited conditions can cause the reduction of Fe3+ to Fe2+, enhancing desorption or dissolution of As from Fe containing minerals (Hasan et al., 2007). Additionally, DOM competes with As for sorption sites at mineral surfaces (Grafe et al., 2002). In this study, batch and column experiments were used to investigate the mechanisms of sequestration and release of As in compost amended mine tailings. Mine tailings were reacted in triplicate in the presence and absence of DOM using plain tailings and radiated tailings for microbiological control and under anoxic and oxic conditions at timescales from ranging from 3 to 900 hours for batch experiments and 1 to 900 pore volumes in column experiments. The highest As release to pore waters was observed under anoxic conditions in the presence of DOM both with microbial activity inhibited and uninhibited through 60Co gamma irradiation after 3 and 910 h of reaction. The release of As from batch experiments was lowest in the control treatment with no DOM added to tailings in both anoxic and oxic treatments after 24 h. Column flow-through experiments were also carried out to better understand the kinetic biogeochemistry of the tailings interacting with DOM. Columns were completed under suboxic conditions to best mimic field scenarios. To test the effect of microbes, control tailing samples were sterilized by 60Co gamma irradiation prior to flowing DOM. Pore volumes (PV) were collected using fractionation equipment from 1 to 900 PVs. The release of As was highest in the presence of DOM after approximately 40 PVs when As release began increasing to its maximum release of 50 μmol l-1. No significant difference between irradiated and non-irradiated tailings was observed in either irradiated or non-irradiated tailings. Lowest release of As to effluent solutions was in the absence of DOM. These results were consistent with the findings from batch experiments. Batch and column experiments show that DOM influences the mobilization of As from mine tailings, and demonstrates the potential risk to proximal ground water resources in the absence of attenuation processes between the oxidized tailings and groundwater.
    • A Built Environment with Architectural Parameters in Sustainability That Mitigates the Onset of PTSD in High Armed Conflict: Physiological, Cognitive, Psychoanalytic, And Social/Behavioral Stimuli to Induce Cognitive Processing for Self-Healing

      Havelka, Heather Leigh (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) was first recognized in veterans of war and called shellshock, and in later years defined by numerous other names. Since 2001 the rate of PTSD within Veterans has increased to the same percentage as that found in the Vietnam War, and I’ve questioned, “what is being done for them on an environmental level”? How is the built environment benefiting them by reducing forms of stimulation that “triggers” or induces unstable behavior? With extensive research the clear answer was that nothing is being done within our built environment, aside from a few guidelines to design to lessen negative impacts. Equally, nothing out in high armed conflict nor in overseas installations that provide rehabilitation care units to wounded warriors are bridging therapy done out there to that done in the United States. The fact is that there is a lack of connection and familiarity with a “sanctity” out in warfare for those with PTSD and this is what inspired this thesis and the innovative design it discusses. A built environment with sustainable architectural parameters will not only allow a “sanctity” to be undetectable and a secure unit for self-rehabilitation as a parallel helper to other forms of therapy for PTSD in conflicted areas, but will equally create an intimacy with the built environment that leads to personal security to enable one to take the necessary steps to continuing rehabilitation after returning home to the United States.
    • Food in Reach: Measuring Access to Public Assistance Food Retailers in Rural Arizona

      Tanoue, Kara Lyn Haberstock (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      The current public food assistance system in the United States depends primarily on delivery through vouchers provided to families who cannot afford adequate food due to economic hardship that they can use in retail markets to purchase food. However, how to conceptualize, define, measure, and determine the importance of access to food retail for the nearly 50 million food insecure people in the U.S. remains a challenge. These three papers provide three different methods for measuring food access in the rural context with diverging purposes and applications, moving from simple conceptions of access to more complex approaches that combine quantitative and qualitative measures. I seek to answer the question: How can critical GIS be used to better understand the relationship between access to food retailers, public nutrition assistance programs, and food shopping patterns in rural Arizona? This question is further refined by three sub-questions: How can GIS be used to develop a better measure of physical access to food retail for nutrition assistance recipients in rural areas? What are the barriers to food access for recipients beyond physical access, and how can these be incorporated into measures of accessibility? How does accessibility of food retail affect recipients’ food shopping habits? Through using a grounded mixed-methods approach, I hope to integrate quantitative measures of access with qualitative insight into individual intentions and lived experience in using public assistance benefits to shop for food. Taken together, these papers provide a broad view on how to better quantify and measure food access in the rural setting, as well as avenues for further development of access measures and interventions to ensure equity in food access for all.
    • "Foreigners" in the Ethnic Homeland and the Limits of Ethnicity

      Huang, Luyao (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      This thesis examines the concept of ethnicity as an analytical category through a multi-layered study of two ethnic minority groups in Japan: Japanese war orphans and Japanese Brazilians. Japanese war orphans are people of Japanese descent who were abandoned in Manchuria by their Japanese families as infants or children at the end of WWII. They often adopted by Chinese families, grew up in China, and then repatriated to Japan since 1970s. Japanese Brazilians are also people of Japanese parentage, who migrated to Brazil in the beginning of 20th century, thrived as positive minorities in Brazil, and then migrated back to Japan since the 1980s. These two minority groups have challenged the dominant ideology of homogeneity in contemporary Japanese society. By examining these people’s stories and circumstances, this thesis demonstrates the ambiguity and contingency of the concept of ethnicity. First of all, as a group category, it diminishes the diversity and uniqueness of individuals into collective ethnic terms such as “Japanese,” “Chinese,” and “Brazilians.” Secondly, this concept of ethnicity could not solve the conflicts between the internally and externally defined ethnic identities of both individuals and groups. And thirdly, it has resulted in a loss or confusion of ethnic self consciousness among Japanese war orphans and Japanese Brazilians population due to the disjuncture between their Japanese descent and foreign cultural identity.
    • The Grammar-Translation Method And the Communicative Approach: Combining Second Language Acquisition Approaches to Teach Lucan and Statius in High School

      Nielson, Meaghan Justine (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      This thesis examines the history of second language pedagogical approaches in order to apply techniques and activities of the Communicative Approach to the method commonly used in Latin classrooms – the Grammar-Translation Approach. Evidence has shown that Comprehensible Input and Output are vital to the communicative competence of students learning second languages, but is lacking in classrooms which employ a strict Grammar-Translation Approach. This thesis combines both of these second language learning systems to create a multi-modal curriculum for use in a high school classroom. In particular, this study culminates in a set of lesson plans to be used with specific passages from Lucan’s Bellum Civile and Statius’ Thebaid that have a clear Vergilian precedent and would therefore be useful and interesting to students who have studied Vergil’s Aeneid in preparation for the Advanced Placement Examination.
    • Fear and Othering: U.S. Media Framing of the 2009 Swine Flu Virus in Mexico

      Ellis, Emily (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      In 2009, the eyes of the world turned to Mexico as reports of a strange new strain of influenza began to dominate headlines and flash across TV screens. It was not the first time that an epidemic thought to have originated in a developing country had made headlines in the United States, nor would it be the last. The coverage was later accused of inciting unnecessary hysteria over a relatively minor and short-lived epidemic, as well as contributing to the stigmatization of Mexicans in the U.S. Using a directed qualitative content analysis, this study examined articles written about the Swine Flu virus in Mexico by four major U.S. newspapers during the height of the epidemic “scare” in Spring 2009. This study hypothesized that fear, othering, and disaster frames would be present in the coverage, based on previous studies on the topic. The research found that fear and othering frames were dominant, demonstrating similarities between U.S. coverage of the Swine Flu virus and coverage of other well-known epidemics in history.
    • The Effect of Native Lagomorph Herbivory and Predator-Prey Dynamics on Grass Establishment in a Shrub-Encroached, Semi-Arid Grassland

      Abercrombie, Sam T. (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Over the last two centuries, shrub encroachment into arid grasslands has been associated with reduced grass abundance, increased soil erosion, and local declines in biodiversity. Overgrazing by livestock and the associated reduction of fine fuels has been thought to be a primary driver of shrub encroachment in the southwestern United States, but shrublands have continued to persist despite livestock removal and grassland restoration efforts. The persistence of shrublands has been attributed, in part, to abiotic and biotic feedbacks that suppress grass reestablishment and reinforce shrub dominance. At a study site in southeastern Arizona, the removal of livestock grazing (cattle) more than 50 years ago and a follow-on shrub removal and grass seeding effort more than 30 years ago have not returned the area to its former grassland state. Because grass occurs within long-term herbivore exclosures, but remains generally absent anywhere else on the site, we hypothesized that grass establishment may be limited by herbivory from native herbivores. Additionally, we hypothesized that changes in the vegetative physiognomy of the site may have an impact on predator-prey dynamics, such as the dynamics between desert cottontails (Sylvilagus audubonii) and coyotes (Canis latrans). We established an herbivore exclusion experiment to test the effect of herbivory from native herbivores on grass establishment in an arid shrubland and used motion-activated trail cameras to document herbivore detection frequency. We created five treatment levels in our herbivore exclosures based on the relative body size of the herbivore permitted to enter, separating the effects of rodents, lagomorphs and mule deer. We also included two control treatments and replicated each treatment 10 times (n = 50). To measure the amount of biomass consumed in each exclosure, we introduced uniform divisions of fresh lawn sod (Cynodon dactylon) into each exclosure for 24-hour periods prior to and following the monsoon rains. Our motion-activated trail cameras operated for one year and recorded herbivore detections during and outside of sod trial periods. We used detections to examine how vegetative attributes (percent shrub cover, visibility, distance to nearest shrub) affected coyote and desert cottontail detections and how those attributes affect desert cottontail giving up density (GUD) through backward variable selection in linear models. We found that in the pre-monsoon trials, exclosures accessible to lagomorphs had less sod biomass relative to other treatments (p < 0.001), averaging only 44% ( 36%) and 29% ( 45%) after the 24-hour trial periods. We also observed desert cottontails visiting our exclosures significantly more frequently (p < 0.001) than any other herbivore. Visibility and percent shrub cover were positively correlated with desert cottontail detections in our species detection models and coyote detections were positively correlated with percent shrub cover and distance to nearest shrub. We also found that GUD was not correlated with any variable except for cottontail detection frequency, which suggests the threat of coyote predation on the site is minimal. Based on the results from our two studies, we concluded that desert cottontails are a significant consumer of grass in arid shrublands and may contribute to continued shrub dominance. We also concluded that ongoing shrub encroachment is likely to benefit desert cottontail populations, especially in areas with minimal predation risk.
    • Struggle and Survival of American Veterans of Operation Iraqi Freedom

      Koopman, David (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      The past century of American military history has shown a rise in warfare against ideologies rather than nations. In comparison to previous military conflicts against other nations or military groups, America has recently found itself waging costly international wars against communism, drugs, illegal immigration, and most recently, terrorism. During the same period growing numbers of veterans struggle with mental illnesses such as PTSD, fits of anger that produce road rage and domestic violence, substance abuse and addiction, and ultimately suicide, which has climbed to a staggering rate of 20 veterans per day. By listening to and analyzing the voices from war through the autoethnography of one OIF veteran, this project will reintroduce the human element of warfare, specifically the second war in Iraq that was primarily known as Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), while illustrating the unique individual struggles that the humans involved in this conflict endured during the war and continue to fight long after the conflict has “ended."
    • Is Complete Case Analysis Appropriate for Cox Regression with Missing Covariate Data?

      Zhu, Min (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      Purpose: Complete case analysis of survival datasets with missing covariates in Cox proportional hazards model relies heavily on strong and usually unverifiable missing mechanism assumptions such as missing completely at random (MCAR) to produce reasonable parameter estimates. Based on the nature of survival data, missing at random (MAR) for missing covariates can be further decomposed into 1) censoring ignorable missing at random (CIMAR) and 2) failure ignorable missing at random (FIMAR). Unlike MCAR and MAR, there are procedures to assess whether missingness of covariates in survival data are consistent with CIMAR or FIMAR. In my thesis, I investigate the performances of the complete case analysis under various missing mechanisms in Cox model and demonstrate the procedures for checking consistency with CIMAR or FIMAR. Experimental design: For research involving missing data, simulation studies are especially useful while studying the performance of some estimation (e.g. complete case analysis) as all parameters are pre-specified and known. I simulate survival data with missing covariates under various missing data mechanisms including MCAR, missing at random (MAR), missing not at random (MNAR), CIMAR and FIMAR. I then perform complete case Cox regression on simulated datasets and compare results to determine which missingness mechanisms produce reasonable parameter estimates. Finally, I perform a two-step procedure to check whether covariate missingness is consistent with CIMAR or FIMAR on a real dataset as outlined by Rathouz (2006). Results: This simulation study illustrates that when covariate missingness is FIMAR but not CIMAR, complete case Cox regression produces reasonable parameter estimates similar to when missingness is MCAR. When covariate missingness is CIMAR, complete case Cox regression produces biased parameter estimates. The two-step procedure suggests covariate missingness in the Stanford heart transplant data is consistent with FIMAR. Conclusions: Survival data with missing covariates that are FIMAR are appropriate for complete case analysis in Cox models. Survival data with missing covariates that are CIMAR are not appropriate for complete case analysis in Cox models. Under independent censoring, it should be possible for researchers to check the consistency of missing covariates in survival data with FIMAR and CIMAR assumptions. If missingness is consistent with FIMAR, complete case Cox regression should produce reasonable estimates. If missingness is consistent with CIMAR or if the data is inconsistent with both CIMAR and FIMAR, complete case Cox regression may produce biased estimates and researchers should consider sensitivity analyses.
    • Challenging the Border Threat Narrative: An Analysis of Testimony, Rhetoric, and Enforcement Data

      Montoya, Christopher R. (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      This thesis examines testimony, rhetoric, and statements made by State actors, for evidence that it creates and perpetuates the Border Threat Narrative. A narrative that establishes the U.S.-Mexico border as a place where violence, chaos, and danger, pose a significant threat to law enforcement, the homeland, and its citizens. This thesis also presents data and statistics from various law enforcement databases that refute the veracity of the Border Threat Narrative. The author further argues that the State imposes the Border Threat Narrative to successfully manage the discourse on border security. Lastly, the author discusses the challenges and obstacles encountered in discrediting the Border Threat Narrative.
    • Household Resilience to Exogenous Shocks: Evidence from Malawi

      Chishimba, Elizabeth (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      This paper uses survey data from 2,666 households in Malawi to examine the effect of household baseline characteristics on household resilience to exogenous shocks. I classify households into four groups depending on their inherent vulnerability and nurtured and/or built resilience using the approach from Briguglio et al. (2009). A household is resilient if it maintains food security after being faced with exogenous shocks or if it moves from being food insecure to being food secure after it is faced with exogenous shocks. Results from a logistic model suggest that having diversified income sources, having more productive assets, and having access to infrastructure such as electricity is important for household resilience. However, the majority of households in Malawi fall into the promising category, meaning the households have less diversified income sources, own no or few productive assets, and do not have access to non-agricultural employment. Although households in Malawi have varying levels of inherent vulnerability, the majority of these households have not built their resilience and appear to be trapped in the status quo.
    • A Plague in a Crisis: Differential Diagnosis of the Cyprian Plague and its Effects on the Roman Empire in the Third Century CE

      Kearns, Amber Lynn (The University of Arizona., 2018)
      The Cyprian Plague, named after Saint Cyprian of Carthage, occurred between 251-270 CE, adding stress to an already tumultuous time. The Roman Empire was in the middle of what is called the “Crisis of the Third Century,” a time when emperors were quickly moving into and out of power while the value of Roman currency plummeted. It is of little doubt that this epidemic greatly impacted the empire, but what the disease, or diseases, causing it and what their effect truly was has yet to be discovered. This thesis uses a differential diagnostic approached modeled from Littman and Littman’s 1973 symptomatic diagnosis of the Antonine Plague from Galen’s medical texts to diagnosis the Cyprian Plague as a viral hemorrhagic fever caused disease similar to Ebola virus disease. By compiling the evidences of the plague and comparing possible effects on the Roman Empire to those experienced in the modern 2013-2016 Ebola Virus disease outbreak, this thesis contributes to the discussion of Rome’s chaotic third century by predicting some of the effects of the Cyprian Plague.