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    An Assessment of Hydroclimatic Trends and Mid-Range Streamflow Predictive Capacity in Four Lower Colorado River Sub-Basins

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    Author
    Lambeth-Beagles, Rachel Syringa
    Issue Date
    2011
    Keywords
    Colorado River
    Hydroclimatic Trends
    Mann-Kendall
    Sea Surface
    Temperatures
    Southwest
    Streamflow Prediction
    Advisor
    Troch, Peter A
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    The University of Arizona.
    Rights
    Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
    Abstract
    Historical changes in hydroclimatic characteristics in four Lower Colorado River sub-basins are examined using the Mann-Kendall test for trends and Kendall's tau-b test for statistical association to better understand the processes taking place in these arid watersheds. During the historical record of 1906-2007, in general, temperatures have increased and streamflows have decreased while there has been no change in precipitation. Streamflow was found to have statistical association with annual maximum temperatures, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Using this knowledge, two-year and five-year streamflow predictions are made using climate data to force a statistical model. We find no predictive skill at the two-year range but significant (alpha =.05) predictive skill in two of the basins at the five-year range. The dominant climate predictor for the Paria River Basin is ENSO and for the Little Colorado River Basin it is temperature.
    Type
    Electronic Thesis
    text
    Degree Name
    M.S.
    Degree Level
    masters
    Degree Program
    Graduate College
    Hydrology
    Degree Grantor
    University of Arizona
    Collections
    Master's Theses

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