A PROTOTYPE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL FOR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT.

Abstract

MAYA is a prototype computerized population dynamics model designed to enhance decision making in wildlife management. Initially, the basis of scientific and philosophical design and implementation of enhanced computer modeling are discussed. This discussion forms the foundation for the development of the actual model. The model is a general population model, utilizing previously known data on seasonally migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) as both an example and a test of the model's capabilities. By combining detailed sub-models at the single species level, the behavior of a larger system is mimicked. The mathematical parameters of this system are restricted to those which correspond to known biological processes. Feedback control is utilized to regulate the dynamic interplay of processes related to specific recognizable structures or physiological functions. The model maintains the identity of the individual organism as the mediator of all transactions within the system. The primary focus of these transactions is energy; specifically consumer energy budgets and their mechanisms of regulation. Equations are presented in finite difference form for digital computer implementation, utilizing a time step of unit length. The result is a Fortran program, MAYA, and a description and discussion of a number of simulation trials. This model was created with an eye not only for computer simulation, but also to raise issues, both philosophic and scientific, as to the reason for, and purpose of, computer management in our society. Thus, it is not until Chapter 4 that an actual discussion of MAYA is to be found. Logic dictates that one should understand the philosophic and theoretic approach of the person creating a model to best understand, question and, hopefully, improve upon the final product. These issues are discussed in Chapters 1 and 2. The greatest value of this model is to provide, based on the ensuing sets of assumptions in Chapter 3, the logical consequences that would otherwise take a great deal of tedious arithmetic--it is a tool to assist the imagination.