Decision making under uncertainty in systems hydrology.

Abstract

Design of engineering projects involve a certain amount of uncertainty. How should design decisions be taken in face of the uncertainty? What is the most efficient way of handling the data? Decision theory can provide useful answers to these questions. The literature review shows that decision theory is a fairly well developed decision method, with almost no application in hydrology. The steps of decision theoretic analysis are given. They are augmented by the concept of expected expected opportunity loss, which is developed as a means of measuring the expected value of additional data before they are received. The method is applied to the design of bridge piers and flood levees for Rillito Creek, Pima County, Arizona. Uncertainty in both the mean and the variance of the logarithms of the peak flows of Rillito Creek is taken into account. Also shown are decision theoretic methods for: 1) handling secondary data, such as obtained from a regression relation, 2) evaluating the effect of the use of nonsufficient statistics, 3) considering alternate models and 4) regionalizing data. It is concluded that decision theory provides a rational structure for making design decisions and for the associated data collection and handling problems.