Decision under uncertainty applied to a hydrologic problem.

Abstract

This thesis provides a basis to evaluate the worth of additional information. A decision theoretic framework is employed to help delineate the components of the decision process. Design modifications of a specific problem are the variables that cause a change in the evaluation of the worth of additional information, but the design Chosen is based on the minimum Bayes risk when the structure is finally built. The hydrologic problem involves the annual peak flows for a river and their effect on the design problem. The process presented takes a great amount of uncertainty from the question, "Do I have enough data on which to base a good decision?" Assignment of a dollar value to the worth of an additional data point tells the decision maker what he can expect to gain by waiting an extra time period for that data point based on knowledge possessed at the present time.