Aspects of aquifer test error analysis

Abstract

In aquifer test analysis the basic sources of errors are in measurement, wrong models, and in the estimation methods. Each is characterized and analyzed statistically. The estimation error was determined for graphical fitting by a panel of hydrologists. For automatic fitting the estimation error was obtained by use of nonlinear regression theory. First order analysis is employed to determine the effect of these errors on predictions utilizing the estimated parameters. Regression theory is further utilized to predetermine the efficiency of an aquifer test design (the variability of the resulting estimates) from the C matrix. There is sufficient similarity between graphical and automatic fitting to believe that the conclusions determined for automatic fitting will qualitatively hold when the fitting method is graphical.