Climatic change and water availability in the Rio Grande and Pecos River basins

Abstract

Climatologists have speculated that increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide deriving from fossil fuel combustion will result in a warmer, drier climate for many parts of the world. One such area which is already facing serious water shortages is the upper Rio Grande Basin. A climatic water balance equation was adopted to model three representative drainages within the basin in order to investigate the effects of this climatic change on streamflow. Results show that a 2°C increase in temperature and a 10% decrease in precipitation would result in a 30% decline in streamflow. Since demand already exceeds or approaches supply, such a diminution in water yield would have serious regional and national ramifications.