The automatic calibration of the SRP's long-term forecasting model
AuthorHay, Lauren E.
Streamflow -- Arizona -- Salt River Watershed -- Mathematical models.
Streamflow -- Arizona -- Salt River Watershed -- Forecasting.
Committee ChairSorooshian, S. S.
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherThe University of Arizona.
RightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
AbstractA gradient based automatic calibration routie was implemented in the Salt River Project's long-term forecasting model. There is a choice of two estimation criteria; Maximium Likelihood or the Ordinary Least Squares. A comparison of the results of the calibration using the different estimation criteria and the original forecasts made by the SRP were made. A parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted and new statistics were implemented in the model. The forecasting results improved significantly with the implementation of an automatic calibration routine. Overall it was found that the Maximum Likelihood objective function using observed flows to calculate the weights performed better than the other objective functions when informative data were available for the watershed.
Degree ProgramHydrology and Water Resources