Hydrogeology and a quantitative model to predict a safe yield for the area of Villa Juarez, Durango, Mexico

Abstract

The Villa Juarez, Durango, area was selected as the appropriate location for constructing an electrical generating plant. Although it has been determined that the water supply is adequate for the present time, it is necessary to determine whether this supply will be adequate for operation of the electrical plant during a period of 20 years. A groundwater model was used to predict the safe yield in the study area. The groundwater demand will be 300 L/s, plus that extracted from the unconfined aquifer in the Villa Juarez area. The total pumpage will be 151,454 m³/d in 1988. The predicted drop in water levels will be between 4 and 7 m, depending on the well location. In areas distant from the river the water level is predicted to drop about 13 m. Considering the available data, very good agreement was found between observed and simulated water levels during the calibration period, and the results of the prediction period are reliable.