Likelihood development for a probabilistic flash flood forecasting model
AuthorKeefer, Timothy Orrin
Committee ChairDavis, Donald R.
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherThe University of Arizona.
RightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
AbstractAn empirical method is developed for constructing likelihood functions required in a Bayesian probabilistic flash flood forecasting model using data on objective quantitative precipitation forecasts and their verification. Likelihoods based on categorical and probabilistic forecast information for several forecast periods, seasons, and locations are shown and compared. Data record length, forecast information type and magnitude, grid area, and discretized interval size are shown to affect probabilistic differentiation of amounts of potential rainfall. Use of these likelihoods in Bayes' Theorem to update prior probability distributions of potential rainfall, based on preliminary data, to posterior probability distributions, reflecting the latest forecast information, demonstrates that an abbreviated version of the flash flood forecasting methodology is currently practicable. For this application, likelihoods based on the categorical forecast are indicated. Apart from flash flood forecasting, it is shown that likelihoods can provide detailed insight into the value of information contained in particular forecast products.
Degree ProgramHydrology and Water Resources