Compositional and Contextual Effects Across Political Landscapes: Case Studies of Migration and Same-Sex Marriage
AuthorJurjevich, Jason R.
AdvisorPlane, David A.
Marston, Sallie A.
Committee ChairPlane, David A.
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherThe University of Arizona.
RightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
AbstractThis dissertation consists of three papers that explore the geographic context of elections. Through case studies of migration and same-sex marriage, this research demonstrates how elections are the products of stratified social, economic, and political environments that area highly variable across space. This dissertation also details the implications for local, state, and national elections.The first two papers of this dissertation explore how compositional effects of migration fundamentally alter political landscapes. In addressing this research question, Appendix A tackles the primary obstacle of compositional migration research--collecting migration data containing individual party identification. This paper makes a significant contribution by serving as the first study to pioneer a methodological approach that predicts individual partisanship of migrants according to socioeconomic characteristics with logistic regression state models. The results underscore the importance of migrant origins and destinations in considering the political effectiveness of migration flows.Relying on the methodological framework in Appendix A, Appendix B calls attention to the oversimplified, undertheorized, and highly problematic definitions of migration responsible for the cursory understanding of migration's compositional effects. Specifically, the paper suggests what recent U.S. migration trends portend for compositional changes in Democratic and Republican partisanship at the state level through a concept of `political effectiveness'. This research makes several important contributions to the existing literature, including clearly illustrating the complexity of migration through the different ways it produces partisan gains.Approaching electoral analysis through a contextual perspective, Appendix C examines the interrelationship of political strategies used by gay rights advocates in campaigns against constitutional bans of same-sex marriage. Through a comparative analysis of Arizona Propositions 107 and 102, this research examines the interrelationship and basis of political strategies between voters' rejection of Proposition 107 (2006) and passage of Proposition 102 (2008). Additionally, considering that vote choice is largely influenced by discursive political cues, including messaging, it is imperative to examine the basis of political strategies and assess how local context influences political strategies and voting constituencies. Findings from this research also provide important considerations for both gay rights and political strategy literatures.