Predicting the Fickle Buyer with the Attribute Carryover Effect

Abstract

The majority of the research conducted on consumer choice phenomena focuses on how choices are made and the processes that lead up to those choices. While these are essential aspects within the breadth of choice knowledge that exists today, little research has been conducted on the options that are rejected during this process. Thus, the overarching goal of this dissertation is gain an understanding of consumer choice processes and outcomes through the lens of a nearly chosen alternative. Specifically, this dissertation investigates how the decision process can cause a close second option to be rejected when the chosen option is found to be unavailable.As a means of achieving these goals, I first demonstrate the phenomenon that consumers do not always select a close second option when the first choice option is unavailable, contrary to the prediction of economic rationality. Next, I propose that the decision process itself, specifically the use of a tie-breaking attribute to differentiate between close options, triggers a choice outcome that does not include the original second choice option, but rather an alternative that possesses this tie-breaking attribute. Finally, I examine the implications that the preference reversal phenomenon described above has for retailers and manufacturers.My original interest in this phenomenon stems from anecdotal evidence provided by a variety of informants. Although this evidence helped me to recognize the prevalence of rejected second choice options, experimental design is used to investigate this phenomenon and the boundary conditions that confine this effect. Consequently, my dissertation consists of 6 experiments. Experiment 1 and a pilot study establish the effect and investigate the theoretical process that account for my findings. Experiments 2 through 4 rule out alternative explanations and add support towards the existence and prevalence of the effect. Finally, Experiments 5 and 6 explore the impact of these results for improving the performance of marketing managers. It is my belief that incorporating the dynamic effects of the second-most preferred option may ultimately lead to more accurate and sophisticated prediction of buyer choices, more effective retailing and personal selling strategies, and more profitable management of product line portfolios.