The Fair Value of Cash Flow Hedges, Future Profitability and Stock Returns

Abstract

I examine the information content of unrealized cash flow hedge gains/losses for future profitability and stock returns. An unrealized gain on a cash flow hedge suggests that the price of the underlying hedged item (i.e. commodity price, foreign currency exchange rate or interest rate) moved in a direction that negatively affects the firm. Based on this inverse relation, I find that unrealized cash flow hedge gains/losses are negatively associated with future gross margin. This association is weaker for firms that have the ability to pass input price changes through to customers. Finally, I find that investors do not immediately price the information conveyed by cash flow hedges. Instead, investors appear surprised by future realizations of gross margin, consistent with the view that a lack of transparent disclosure on future hedged transactions leads to a delay in pricing. These results may inform current policy decisions of both the FASB and SEC.