The Fair Value of Cash Flow Hedges, Future Profitability and Stock Returns
AuthorCampbell, John L.
AdvisorDhaliwal, Dan S.
Committee ChairDhaliwal, Dan S.
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherThe University of Arizona.
RightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
AbstractI examine the information content of unrealized cash flow hedge gains/losses for future profitability and stock returns. An unrealized gain on a cash flow hedge suggests that the price of the underlying hedged item (i.e. commodity price, foreign currency exchange rate or interest rate) moved in a direction that negatively affects the firm. Based on this inverse relation, I find that unrealized cash flow hedge gains/losses are negatively associated with future gross margin. This association is weaker for firms that have the ability to pass input price changes through to customers. Finally, I find that investors do not immediately price the information conveyed by cash flow hedges. Instead, investors appear surprised by future realizations of gross margin, consistent with the view that a lack of transparent disclosure on future hedged transactions leads to a delay in pricing. These results may inform current policy decisions of both the FASB and SEC.