Modeling the Effect of Shocks and Stresses on the Reliability of Networks with Radial Topologies

Abstract

We consider the impact that various shocks and stresses have on the reliability of networks with radial topology, such as an electrical power grid. We incorporate the effects of aging, geographical risk, and local dependence between components into a model of overall system reliability. We also simulate how the system fares under extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Our model gives a flexible and general understanding of how outside forces affect network reliability and can be adapted to a range of specific uses. We run a simulation using this model which yields realistic results.