GLOBALIZATION AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION TRAJECTORIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, 1980-2006

Abstract

Global energy sector carbon dioxide emissions between 2007 and 2010 have been growing much faster than projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IEA 2011). Roughly 75% of this growth can be attributed to developing countries that are increasingly manufacturing goods destined for consumption in the developed world (Peters et al. 2011). This study examines the energy sector carbon dioxide emissions and emission trajectories of 64 developing countries from 1980 to 2006. Approximately 50% of these countries have relatively flat slopes when their emissions are plotted over time or against gross domestic product per capita. To shed some light on how this is possible, two competing theories of globalization are tested. World-systems theory argues that global economic integration is predicated on core-periphery exploitation, which leads to unsustainable development. World-society theory, on the other hand, contends that global social integration diffuses modern environmental values, which leads to structural isomorphism and sustainable development. World-society diffusion in this study is approximated by the network measure of degree centrality, which is calculated from shared ratifications of international environmental treaties. To find out if these opposing dynamics significantly impact emissions and emission trajectories independently, or in conjunction, three different methods are used: Prais-Winsten panel regression with panel-corrected standard errors, cross-section ordinary least squares regression and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis.Findings from the panel regressions indicate that network centrality in global environmental treaty regimes has a significant, albeit weak, negative effect on carbon dioxide emissions. This effect is further attenuated by high levels of world-system exploitation, as measured by International Monetary Fund (IMF) credit. The first set of cross-section regressions indicate that network centrality has a significant, but weak, negative effect on emission trajectories plotted against GDP per capita when restricted to those countries that have low levels of IMF credit. The second set of cross-section regressions indicate that network centrality has a significant, but once again weak, negative effect on emission trajectories plotted over time when restricted to those countries that have low levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). The fuzzy set qualitative comparative analyses reveal that world-society diffusion is only implicated in two out of five sufficient configurations for membership in the outcome set of countries with relatively flat emission trajectories plotted against GDP per capita. Furthermore, world-society diffusion, at least as approximated in terms of network centrality in international environmental treaty regimes, is not implicated in any of the sufficient configurations when the outcome involves membership in the set of countries with relatively flat emission trajectories plotted over time. In these analyses it is the absence of economic growth that is most often implicated, followed by low levels of FDI and IMF credit.