• Login
    View Item 
    •   Home
    • UA Graduate and Undergraduate Research
    • UA Theses and Dissertations
    • Dissertations
    • View Item
    •   Home
    • UA Graduate and Undergraduate Research
    • UA Theses and Dissertations
    • Dissertations
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Browse

    All of UA Campus RepositoryCommunitiesTitleAuthorsIssue DateSubmit DateSubjectsPublisherJournalThis CollectionTitleAuthorsIssue DateSubmit DateSubjectsPublisherJournal

    My Account

    LoginRegister

    About

    AboutUA Faculty PublicationsUA DissertationsUA Master's ThesesUA Honors ThesesUA PressUA YearbooksUA CatalogsUA Libraries

    Statistics

    Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

    Multi-Model Bayesian Analysis of Data Worth and Optimization of Sampling Scheme Design

    • CSV
    • RefMan
    • EndNote
    • BibTex
    • RefWorks
    Thumbnail
    Name:
    azu_etd_11876_sip1_m.pdf
    Size:
    5.423Mb
    Format:
    PDF
    Download
    Author
    Xue, Liang
    Issue Date
    2011
    Keywords
    Model averaging
    Multi-model analysis
    Uncertainty analysis
    Hydrology
    Bayesian analysis
    Data worth
    Advisor
    Neuman, Shlomo P.
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    The University of Arizona.
    Rights
    Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
    Abstract
    Groundwater is a major source of water supply, and aquifers form major storage reservoirs as well as water conveyance systems, worldwide. The viability of groundwater as a source of water to the world's population is threatened by overexploitation and contamination. The rational management of water resource systems requires an understanding of their response to existing and planned schemes of exploitation, pollution prevention and/or remediation. Such understanding requires the collection of data to help characterize the system and monitor its response to existing and future stresses. It also requires incorporating such data in models of system makeup, water flow and contaminant transport. As the collection of subsurface characterization and monitoring data is costly, it is imperative that the design of corresponding data collection schemes is cost-effective. A major benefit of new data is its potential to help improve one's understanding of the system, in large part through a reduction in model predictive uncertainty and corresponding risk of failure. Traditionally, value-of-information or data-worth analyses have relied on a single conceptual-mathematical model of site hydrology with prescribed parameters. Yet there is a growing recognition that ignoring model and parameter uncertainties render model predictions prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. This has led to a recent emphasis on conducting hydrologic analyses and rendering corresponding predictions by means of multiple models. We develop a theoretical framework of data worth analysis considering model uncertainty, parameter uncertainty and potential sample value uncertainty. The framework entails Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) with emphasis on its Maximum Likelihood version (MLBMA). An efficient stochastic optimization method, called Differential Evolution Method (DEM), is explored to aid in the design of optimal sampling schemes aiming at maximizing data worth. A synthetic case entailing generated log hydraulic conductivity random fields is used to illustrate the procedure. The proposed data worth analysis framework is applied to field pneumatic permeability data collected from unsaturated fractured tuff at the Apache Leap Research Site (ALRS) near Superior, Arizona.
    Type
    text
    Electronic Dissertation
    Degree Name
    Ph.D.
    Degree Level
    doctoral
    Degree Program
    Graduate College
    Hydrology
    Degree Grantor
    University of Arizona
    Collections
    Dissertations

    entitlement

     
    The University of Arizona Libraries | 1510 E. University Blvd. | Tucson, AZ 85721-0055
    Tel 520-621-6442 | repository@u.library.arizona.edu
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2017  DuraSpace
    Quick Guide | Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Open Repository is a service operated by 
    Atmire NV
     

    Export search results

    The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

    By default, clicking on the export buttons will result in a download of the allowed maximum amount of items.

    To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

    After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.