Machine learning (ML) is a widely unexplored field in dendroclimatology, but it is a powerful tool that might improve the accuracy of climate reconstructions. In this paper, different ML algorithms are compared to climate reconstruction from tree-ring proxies. The algorithms considered are multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANN), model trees (MT), bagging of model trees (BMT), and random forests of regression trees (RF). April-May mean temperature at a Quercus robur stand in Slovenia is predicted with mean vessel area (MVA, correlation coefficient with April-May mean temperature, r = 0.70, p < 0.001) and earlywood width (EW, r = -0.28, p < 0.05). Similarly, June-August mean temperature is predicted with stable carbon isotope (delta C-13, r = 0.72, p < 0.001), stable oxygen (delta O-18, r = isotope 0.32, p < 0.05) and tree-ring width (TRW, r = 0.11, p > 0.05 (ns)) chronologies. The predictive performance of ML algorithms was estimated by 3-fold cross-validation repeated 100 times. In both spring and summer temperature models, BMT performed best respectively in 62% and 52% of the 100 repetitions. The second-best method was ANN. Although BMT gave the best validation results, the differences in the models' performances were minor. We therefore recommend always comparing different ML regression techniques and selecting the optimal one for applications in dendroclimatology.

Global climate change will alter forests by shifting species ranges, which has implications for their ecological functions. Annual tree-ring widths andwood density are useful proxies for carbon cycle studies across a range of species. Here, using a dendroecological approach we sought to understand the carbon accumulation rates of two representative pine species growing on contrasting wet (P. arizonica) and dry (P. cembroides) sites and reveal how such species cope with climate variability. Although the rate of carbon gain was not significantly different across sites, we found that variations in carbon accumulation responded differently to specific hydroclimate drivers, site conditions, or to functional features of each species, which are still to be explored. Overall, annual carbon accumulation (C) was less sensitive to climate variability than ring width and wood density. Annual C was more sensitive to rainfall in the cold season (P. arizonica) and to the start of spring (both species). Our species-specific approach provided a suitable basis for modeling projections in the long-term carbon balance in these forests. Using species-specific tree-ring data has the potential to yield better estimations given that tree rings reflect fine spatial and temporal resolution, thereby reducing the uncertainty in forest carbon budgets.

Earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) chronologies can be used to analyze seasonal climatic variation. We constructed and analyzed total ring (RW), EW, and LW ring growth in Abies religiosa and Pinus pseudostrobus trees from the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve and evaluated their climatic signal (monthly precipitation and mean average, minimum and maximum temperatures) in the growth of tree rings by correlation and response function analyses. Precipitation during October and December of the previous year and during January, February, April, and May of the year of growth had a positive influence in the growth of both P. pseudostrobus and A. religiosa. Mean maximum temperatures had a negative effect on tree growth in both species. Additionally, growth of A. religiosa was more sensitive to variations of mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures in comparison with P. pseudostrobus, and monthly mean minimum temperature was positively correlated with EW and LW series in A. religiosa. We conclude that EW and LW growth of A. religiosa and P. pseudostrobus might be reduced by lower precipitation during the winter-spring season. Consequently, in the eventuality of warmer and drier climate during the latter season as projected by climate change scenarios, growth rates of A. religiosa could become severely affected, negatively impacting the overwintering habitat of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.).

We are reporting the first dendrochronological dating of timber from Tajikistan. Thirty samples were collected from two old buildings from a village located in the western Pamir-Alay; eight cores were taken from temple. Most of the construction wood was juniper species. The object chronologies cross-dated well with the previously published chronology based on living juniper trees from western PamirAlay. The results of dating revealed that investigated structures are composed of wood coming from several periods. The oldest pieces of wood dated back to the 11th and 12th Centuries. Most timber samples come from the turn of the 17th and 18th Centuries, which were probably the period of intense development of the Artuch village. Besides dating of the wood samples from these historic structures, our investigation provides the opportunity to extend the currently existing regional tree-ring chronology for future climate reconstruction of the Pamir-Alay and High Asia. Dated sequences were assembled into a 1012-year chronology spanning the period 945-2014 C.E. and strengthened the replication of its earliest part (with critical 0.85 EPS value since the beginning of the 13th Century).

Mexican beech (Fagus grandifolia subsp. mexicana) has been classified as an endangered species because of its restricted distribution. The current distribution of Mexican beech, which is considered a Miocene relict, is limited to Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCF) in the mountains of the Sierra Madre Oriental in eastern Mexico. We used dendroclimatic techniques to evaluate the effects of climate variability on the growth of Mexican beech within three forest fragments. The independent chronologies developed for the three sites were 152-178 years long. Cross-sections helped to assess the quality of the crossdating and detect false rings. Over the last 180 years, Mexican beech trees have lower mean radial growth than rates exhibited by other Fagus species. Mexican beech growth appears to be influenced by growing-season temperatures, especially mean maximum temperature. The response appears to be positive at the beginning of the growing season but becomes negative later. These results suggest that the persistence of Fagus-dominated forests in Mexico is dependent on local-scale climatic conditions of the TMCF. Mexican beech forests are associated with micro-climatic conditions that will control the fate of these forests in the face of on-going climate change.

Growth-ring analysis is a valuable source of information for reconstructing environmental history. In this study, ring-width series of a sample of Fagus grandifolia subsp. mexicana were used to identify the main events that have affected populations of this species. Core samples were extracted in three representative beech forests in Mexico. These are forests where F. grandifolia subsp. mexicana dominates the canopy. A total of 3355 years of growth rings were measured and three ring-width chronologies were generated. Average annual ring widths were similar between the three sites and ranged from 0.98 to 1.08 mm. A pattern of multiple suppressions and releases was observed, mainly associated with local events, but with a slight climatic influence. Correlations between the ring-width index and climate variables were not statistically significant, with the exception of a seasonal January-June precipitation pattern (1982-2001). There has not been a large-scale disturbance of natural or human origin in the beech forests of the state of Hidalgo in the past 150 years, except in El Gosco, where anthropogenic disturbances have increased in the past decade.

The South American Dendroecological Fieldweek (SADEF) associated with the Third American Dendrochronology Conference was held in El Bolson, Argentina, in March 2016. The main objective of the SADEF was to teach the basics of dendrochronology while applying specific knowledge to selected research questions. The course included participants and instructors from six different countries. This report describes activities of the course and briefly summarizes exploratory group projects. The Introductory Group developed an Austrocedrus chilensis chronology from 1629-2015 and documented a persistent decline in growth since 1977 which supports the fact that the current severe drought is the most severe in the 386-year record. Based on regional A. chilensis chronologies from 32. to 39. S Latitude, the Stream Flow Reconstruction Group developed a regional 525 year-long reconstruction from Rio Chubut and found the most severe drought episodes from 1490 to the present occurred from 1680-1705, 18131828, 1900-1920, 1993-2002, and from 2011 to the present. The Drought Reconstruction Group used A. chilensis annual tree-ring width chronologies to develop preliminary spatial field reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index spanning the Central Andes region. The reconstructions explain up to 81% of the 1907-1975 PDSI variance, indicating this tree species is powerful for informing on historical drought especially in very arid domains. The Dendroecology Group documented three spreading fires since the 1850s with a 12-year return interval but lack of fire for the last 94 years; they also documented a persistent decline in their chronologies in recent years, dating back to 1965.

Millennium-aged trees are rare in natural forests. Here we present an 1184-year-long tree-ring width chronology from living juniper trees in the Biru area on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Growth-climate response analysis shows that the Biru chronology is significantly and positively correlated with late-spring (May-June) Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) (r = 0.67, n = 53, p < 0.01). The tree-ring chronology explains 44.5% of the total variance of SPEI during the period AD 81957-2010. Reconstruction of May-June SPEI shows that there was a two-century-long megadrought during the late 13th to late 15th Centuries, and a seven-decade-long megadrought during AD 1630s to 1690s. Comparisons with other moisture records in the region suggest that the two-century megadrought identified in our reconstruction might be a widespread phenomenon most likely reflecting a stage of reduced Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon. Our results provide new evidence on the megadrought events on the Tibetan Plateau for the last millennium. © 2017 by The Tree-Ring Society.

In trees experiencing stress prior to death, growth may be partially or totally suppressed, or may occur only in the upper part of the boles. This may induce inaccuracies when retrospectively crossdating dead trees. In this study, we investigated the occurrence and range of time lags between year of last ring production (YOLRP) in crossdated discs collected at the base, at breast height (BrH), and in the upper part (UP) of the boles of 145 snags and logs of four boreal species. We also assessed the influence of tree age and growth prior to death. When comparing YOLRP in the upper and lower part of trees, more than half the time lags departed from zero. Mean lags ranged from 0.6 to 4.6 years according to species, with lags up to 14 years. Negative time lags, i.e. ring production occurring in the lower part of boles while it has stopped in the upper part, were also observed in up to 26% of cases. We suggest that when reconstructing fine patterns of mortality where accuracy must be optimized, sampling entire discs at BrH should be considered, as well as sampling a disc in the UP when sampling old or slowly declining trees. © 2017 by The Tree-Ring Society.

Few tree-ring based fire-history studies have been completed in pine ecosystems of the Southeastern Coastal Plain, in part because of difficulties in finding old fire-scarred material. We propose specialized field methods that improve the likelihood of locating fire scars in dead trees (i.e. stumps, snags, and logs). Classic fire-history field methods developed in the southwestern United States involve targeting only trees with evidence of repeated external scarring, but we have found this approach to be less effective in our region given that trees without any external scarring may contain an abundance of buried scars. The buried scars occur primarily near the ground surface and can be sampled by collecting full cross-sections from the bases of old dead trees. We hope our insights foster further fire-history research in the Southeastern Coastal Plain. © 2017 by The Tree-Ring Society.