Tree-Ring Bulletin, Vol. 47 (1987)
ABOUT THE COLLECTION
Tree-Ring Research is the peer-reviewed journal of the Tree Ring Society. The journal was first published in 1934 under the title Tree-Ring Bulletin. In 2001, the title changed to Tree-Ring Research.
Issues from 1934–2006 are freely available on the publications section of the Tree-Ring Society website. The Tree-Ring Society and the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona partnered with the University Libraries to re-digitize back issues for improved searching capabilities and long-term preservation.
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Box-Jenkins Models of Forest Interior Tree-Ring Chronologies(Tree-Ring Society, 1987)Time domain properties of 23 tree-ring chronologies derived from a large sample of Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine trees growing in closed-canopy forests of Colorado and New Mexico were analyzed using Box-Jenkins models. A variety of statistical criteria were employed during the identification and validation stages for evaluating the performance of different significant models, and the "best" Box-Jenkins model and its immediate "competitor" were reported for each tree-ring chronology. All series were stationary, and only one was approximately a white noise series. Overall, the ARMA(1,1) model was judged the best for 11 series, and the second for 7 of the remaining 12 series. The AR(2) model was considered the best for 6 series, and the second for 4 of the remaining 17 series. No statistical evidence was found for moving average models, nor for models with more than three different parameters. However, both cyclical (or seasonal) models and third-order autoregressive models with a null second-order parameter were chosen for some series. Fitted models explained from 7 to 51% of the variance of the original ring-index series, with an average of about 22 %. All parameter estimates were positive, and they varied within a relatively small range. From a comparison of all employed criteria, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was the one that performed best in identifying Box-Jenkins models for tree-ring chronologies. Possible distinctions were recognized that would separate the selected models according to species and /or standardization option. Among the 12 chronologies from Colorado sites, all derived using the same standardization option, most Douglas-fir series were best fitted by the ARMA(1,1) model, while most ponderosa pine series were best fitted by the AR(2) model, suggesting a difference in the biological persistence of the two species. On the other hand, most of New Mexico chronologies, developed using various standardization options, were best fitted by the ARMA(1,1) model, and no difference was found between Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine series. Also, models fitted to Colorado chronologies explained a lower amount of variance than those for New Mexico chronologies (averages of 17 versus 29% respectively), and cyclical models were mainly selected for New Mexico series. Although periodicities in Douglas-fir series were probably caused by western spruce budworm outbreaks, similar periodic patterns in ponderosa pine series were more difficult to explain because pine trees in the study area had not been defoliated by that insect. Compared to the original tree-ring chronologies, prewhitened series showed similar short-term growth patterns, reduced long-term growth fluctuations, lower standard deviations, and higher mean sensitivities. Also, cross-correlations between chronologies from the same area usually increased after prewhitening. Since the autocorrelation problem is crucial in analyzing the relationships between different time series, and in removing the biological persistence included in tree-ring chronologies, the Box-Jenkins approach should facilitate the analysis of the dynamic relationships between tree growth and environmental variables.
Trackways and Tree Trunks - Dating Neolithic Oaks in the British Isles(Tree-Ring Society, 1987)The Midlands and South-west of England are represented by a long oak tree-ring chronology spanning approximately 4500-3900 BC (calibrated radiocarbon dates). The wood on which it is based originates in a technologically advanced trackway crossing the low-lying Somerset Levels, in a coastal submerged forest probably killed by rising sea-level, and in flood-plain oaks washed down the River Trent. Cross-matching between the growth patterns of the three groups of trees is of good quality, yet so far the chronology has failed to cross-date with the long Irish and German dated chronologies. The reasons for this, and the implications of eventual dating, are discussed.
The Decomposition of Tree-Ring Series for Environmental Studies(Tree-Ring Society, 1987)Signal extraction in tree-ring research is considered as a general time series decomposition problem. A linear aggregate model for a hypothetical ring-width series is proposed, which allows the problem to be reduced to the estimation and extraction of five discrete classes of signals. These classes represent the signals due to trend, climate, endogenous disturbance, exogenous disturbance, and random error. For each class of signal, some mathematical/statistical techniques of estimation are described and reviewed. Except for the exogenous disturbance signal, the techniques only require information contained within the ring-width series, themselves. A unified mathematical framework for solving this decomposition problem has not yet been explicitly formulated. However, the general applicability of ARMA time series models to this problem and the power and flexibility of state space modelling suggest that these techniques will provide the closest thing to a unified framework in the future.
The Summary Response Function of Cedrus Atlantica (Endl.) Carriere in Morocco(Tree-Ring Society, 1987)This paper presents the synthesis of all the response functions computed on Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) Carrière in Morocco. More than a thousand tree-ring width series collected in 40 sites have been used. At every site, a distinction has been made between young adult trees and old adult trees. Response functions have been calculated on the mean raw ring widths by using the multiple linear regression model of Guiot (Guiot et al. 1982). Among the variables selected to determine the response of Cedrus to climate, the precipitation of autumn and winter and the temperature of January, April, August and September play the leading part in explaining the ring-width variations.
A Dendrochronological Study of Cryptomeria Japonica in Japan(Tree-Ring Society, 1987)Living specimens of Cryptomeria japonica D.Don var. radicans Nakai collected in western Japan were analyzed to evaluate the research potential of this tree species for future development of dendrochronology and dendroclimatology in Japan. A sufficiently strong correlation of tree growth with climatic factors was obtained in the residual chronology in which the variance due to autocorrelation was removed. It was also revealed that regional average climatic data are strongly correlated with tree growth. Thus, Cryptomeria japonica appears to have a promising potential for chronology- building and climatic reconstruction in Japan.