Modeling deforestation risk in the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala

Abstract

The tropical forest of Guatemala's 21,130 square kilometer Maya Biosphere Reserve and buffer zone is being impacted by deforestation due to an increase of the local population and establishment of over 200 new settlements over the last 20 years. Existing geographic information system databases and remote sensing data were used to determine how much of the observed deforestation could be explained by three factors: roads, human settlements, and soil quality. Each factor was analyzed separately using spatial and statistical analysis methods. These factors were then combined to create a final deforestation risk model. The deterministic model enables policy makers, as well as managers, to create scenarios that assess the impact of their actions on the forest on a regional scale.