A longitudinal analysis of return migration from Australia,1982-1990

Abstract

This study evaluates three hypotheses of return migration from Australia: the success hypothesis, the failure hypothesis and the continued evaluation hypothesis. Under the success hypothesis, migrants integrate well into Australian society, but return when they reach their target income. The failure hypothesis proposes that migrants have strong ties to their country of origin and do not integrate well into Australian society. This weak level of integration leads to low probabilities of finding employment and low wage. That, combined with the high pecuniary costs associated with remaining in Australia leads to high probabilities of return migration when economic conditions in Australia are poor. Under this scenario, migrants tend to be older, married and are poorly skilled. In the final hypothesis--the continued evaluation hypothesis--migrants retain strong ties to their country of origin while also integrating into Australian society. However, unlike the previous two hypotheses, migrants continue to compare economic conditions in their country of origin with those in Australia, and return when benefits outweigh the costs of remaining in Australia. The three hypotheses are tested using data from Australian arrival and departure cards and a Cox proportional hazard model. The continued evaluation path hypothesis is found to be most appropriate for Hong Kong, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States, whereas the success hypothesis is most applicable for South Africa, Viet Nam and Yugoslavia. There was little support for the failure hypothesis.