Effect of climate change in hydropower generation

Abstract

Impact of potential climatic change in hydropower generation has been the main objective of this research. Two flood control, hydropower, and recreation projects located in the midwest USA have been selected as the subject of the analysis given the consistency of the available climatic data and the adequate energy generation records. These two reservoirs are Stockton and Harry S. Truman Reservoirs located on the Osage River Basin which is part of the Lower Missouri River Basin. Both reservoirs were designed, constructed and are currently managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District. Long-term monthly precipitation, evaporation, temperature, streamflow and power generation records were used in the statistical analysis. The hydrologic data, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow data were utilized in a multivariate analysis with the purpose of producing a regression model capable of reproducing baseline conditions. From the baseline conditions, ten different climatic variation scenarios were studied. Each scenario produced a series of streamflow records that were extended using a randomly generated data to produce 21-year long reservoir inflow series. Reservoir inflow series in each scenario were modeled using a reservoir operation model. Firm energy was then evaluated and compared with baseline conditions to determine the economic impact of the climatic variations. In summary, operating rules and water reservoir management for different purposes are impacted and need further evaluation by operating managers, if streamflow records were to follow studied trends.