An assessment of temporal and spatial variations in Italian regional fertility, past and present

Abstract

Italian fertility rates have been declining since the early 1970s and are now among the lowest in the world. Italy itself, however, remains characterized by wide differences across its regions. Speaking only of national-level fertility trends obscures the true picture of Italian fertility over the past several decades and risks oversimplifying a complex phenomenon. This dissertation suggests the Italian region as the better scale of analysis for a true understanding of Italian fertility. The three studies presented in this dissertation evaluate Italian regional fertility patterns and trends from 1952 to 1995. The first study uses shift-share analysis to show that regional changes in the numbers of births during this period can be attributed to different components, depending on the years and regions in question. The second study uses convergence analysis and demonstrates that, although a strong regional pattern is detectable in fertility rates over the past several decades, fertility rates have been converging in Italy since the 1950s. The third study links contemporary and historical regional fertility trends in Italy to show that today's regional patterns of fertility have been in evidence since the early 20th century. The paper also argues that increases in regional fertility diversity that accompanied political unification were unexpected and offers suggestions for this occurrence. Taken together, the three studies comprising this dissertation represent a thorough assessment of regional fertility in Italy.