A predictive model of Late Archaic Period site locations in the Tucson basin

Abstract

Due to characteristically poor archaeological visibility, Late Archaic Period (2000 B.C.-A.D. 500) assemblages, which hold clues about the behavior of people who lived in the Tucson Basin during a period marked by the important socio-economic transition from hunting and gathering to food production, suffer high risks of being effaced by Tucson's urban sprawl. This thesis presents a predictive archaeological model of Late Archaic Period site locations in the Tucson Basin using multiple logistic regression and GIS. The statistical results of the regression analysis indicate that three environmental variables--elevation, path distance to "reliable" water sources (streams), and path distance to arable landforms--influenced Late Archaic Period site placement. The spatial results highlight Tucson Basin land parcels that are likely to contain Late Archaic Period sites based on empirical relationships between known site locations and environmental variables in surveyed areas.