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dc.contributor.advisorMonke, Eric A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xiaohua, 1964-
dc.creatorZhang, Xiaohua, 1964-en_US
dc.date.accessioned2013-05-16T09:29:11Z
dc.date.available2013-05-16T09:29:11Z
dc.date.issued1991en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/291531
dc.description.abstractIn the analysis of investment and production decisions for perennial crops, expectations play a critical role. This thesis studied three hypotheses about price expectations and reviewed five supply response models for perennial crops. An empirical model for the apple industry was developed to test alternative representations of expected prices. The naive and adaptive expectation model performed well with national data, whereas moving averages of price and the adaptive expectations model performed better with Washington data. To improve estimates of supply response for perennial crops, better data are needed to describe new plantings, removals, the age distribution of trees, production costs, and climatic conditions. Rapid technological change in the U.S. apple industry may cause producers to revise the way they form expected prices, encouraging them to use more historical information and paying more attention to projections of future demand. Rational expectations perspectives may become increasingly relevant.
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.subjectEconomics, Agricultural.en_US
dc.titlePrice expectations in perennial crop supply modelsen_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeThesis-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
dc.identifier.proquest1343705en_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineAgricultural Economicsen_US
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en_US
dc.identifier.bibrecord.b26844102en_US
refterms.dateFOA2018-04-24T19:00:22Z
html.description.abstractIn the analysis of investment and production decisions for perennial crops, expectations play a critical role. This thesis studied three hypotheses about price expectations and reviewed five supply response models for perennial crops. An empirical model for the apple industry was developed to test alternative representations of expected prices. The naive and adaptive expectation model performed well with national data, whereas moving averages of price and the adaptive expectations model performed better with Washington data. To improve estimates of supply response for perennial crops, better data are needed to describe new plantings, removals, the age distribution of trees, production costs, and climatic conditions. Rapid technological change in the U.S. apple industry may cause producers to revise the way they form expected prices, encouraging them to use more historical information and paying more attention to projections of future demand. Rational expectations perspectives may become increasingly relevant.


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