Climate and valley fever (coccidioidomycosis)

Abstract

This thesis provides the results of research that explores the relationship between climatic conditions and the incidence of valley fever in Pima County. Valley fever is caused by a soil-dwelling fungus, C. immitis, which responds to changes in climate conditions. Bivariate and compositing analyses provided the basic relationships necessary for the development of monthly multivariate models. The models are designed to predict deviation from mean incidence based on past, current, and forecast climate conditions. Temperature and precipitation are important predictors of incidence, and were used in model development. Winter temperature and precipitation variables were included in the model more frequently than variables in other seasons, and most variables were on the time scale of one year or more prior to the month being predicted. Model results were moderate, and months with high incidence can be predicted more accurately than months with low incidence.