• Input Specifications to a Stochastic Decision Model

      Clainos, D. M.; Duckstein, L.; Roefs, T. G.; Systems and Industrial Engineering Department, University of Arizona; Hydrology and Water Resources Department, University of Arizona (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      The use of discrete conditional dependency matrices as input to stochastic decision models is examined. Some of the problems and initial assumptions involved with the construction of the above mentioned matrices are discussed. Covered in considerable detail is the transform used to relate the gamma space with the normal space. A new transform is introduced that should produce reasonable results when the record of streamflow (data) has a highly skewed distribution. Finally, the possibility of using the matrices to provide realistic inputs to a stochastic dynamic program is discussed.
    • An Investigation of Colorado River Trips: A User Study

      Boster, Mark A.; Gum, Russell L.; Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      Increased useer intensity of the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park and Monument required the national park service and the Colorado River outfitters association to adopt new policies to improve the quality of river trips and to protect the river. This study was undertaken to gain a greater awareness and understanding of visitor expectations, perceptions, interactions, satisfactions and dissatisfactions by analysis of response to a questionnaire mailed to a random sample of 2,622 past river runners from which a 65 percent return was received. Analysis of individual question tabulation and multivariate data-cluster analysis were performed. Users found crowding or user density to be at least tolerable. The largest group of runners were average in wilderness or other activities, and low relative to less strenuous activities. A large group of runners had relatively little experience in the wilderness. A large group of runners enjoyed the trip, desired more regulations, and were moderate about taking more trips. A large group rated the trip as a wilderness adventure which provided the opportunity to 'get away'. Cluster analysis is shown to be a useful tool of policy-making institutions.
    • Man-Nature Attitudes of Arizona Water Resource Leaders

      Kanerva, Roger A.; King, David A.; Department of Water Resources, Annapolis, Maryland; Department of Watershed Management, University of Arizona, Tucson (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      A pilot study is developed to construct a scale which measures attitude towards human management in Arizona. The decision-maker's attitudes toward his man-made and natural environments are investigated in terms of cultural (interior), natural (intermediate), and balanced (exterior) reference positions. A decision-making model consists of stimuli (inputs), decision-making (process function), and response (outputs). The 12 questions developed and applied to Arizona water managers were reduced to 8 capable scalogram analysis. These scaled questions related to favoring physical or emotional needs of man, deciding who gets what or increasing the supply, including behavioral patterns, protecting environmental areas, manipulation of resources as harmful or beneficial, municipal and industrial demands, opinions of groups, and possible overuse of resources. The scale met 5 criteria, which are defined by reproducibility, non-scale pattern of response, number of questions, error ratio and cross checking of responses. This study may provide managers with means of objectively evaluating and improving decisions.
    • Role of Modern Methods of Data Analysis for Interpretation of Hydrologic Data in Arizona

      Kisiel, Chester C.; Duckstein, Lucien; Fogel, Martin M.; Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721; Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering | Department of Watershed Management (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      Mathematical models, requiring substantial data, of hydrologic and water resources systems are under intensive investigation. The processes of data analysis and model building are interrelated so that models may be used to forecast for scientific reasons or decision making. Examples are drawn from research on modeling aquifers, watersheds, streamflow and precipitation in Arizona. Classes of problems include model choice, parameter estimates, initial condition, input identification, forecasting, valuation, control, presence of multiple objectives, and uncertainty. Classes of data analysis include correlation methods, system identification, stationarity, independence or randomness, seasonality, event based approach, fitting of probability distributions, and analysis for runs, range and crossing levels. Time series, event based and regression methods are reviewed. The issues discussed are applied to tree-ring analyses, streamflow gaging stations, and digital modeling of small watersheds and the Tucson aquifers.