• Input Specifications to a Stochastic Decision Model

      Clainos, D. M.; Duckstein, L.; Roefs, T. G.; Systems and Industrial Engineering Department, University of Arizona; Hydrology and Water Resources Department, University of Arizona (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      The use of discrete conditional dependency matrices as input to stochastic decision models is examined. Some of the problems and initial assumptions involved with the construction of the above mentioned matrices are discussed. Covered in considerable detail is the transform used to relate the gamma space with the normal space. A new transform is introduced that should produce reasonable results when the record of streamflow (data) has a highly skewed distribution. Finally, the possibility of using the matrices to provide realistic inputs to a stochastic dynamic program is discussed.
    • Man-Nature Attitudes of Arizona Water Resource Leaders

      Kanerva, Roger A.; King, David A.; Department of Water Resources, Annapolis, Maryland; Department of Watershed Management, University of Arizona, Tucson (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      A pilot study is developed to construct a scale which measures attitude towards human management in Arizona. The decision-maker's attitudes toward his man-made and natural environments are investigated in terms of cultural (interior), natural (intermediate), and balanced (exterior) reference positions. A decision-making model consists of stimuli (inputs), decision-making (process function), and response (outputs). The 12 questions developed and applied to Arizona water managers were reduced to 8 capable scalogram analysis. These scaled questions related to favoring physical or emotional needs of man, deciding who gets what or increasing the supply, including behavioral patterns, protecting environmental areas, manipulation of resources as harmful or beneficial, municipal and industrial demands, opinions of groups, and possible overuse of resources. The scale met 5 criteria, which are defined by reproducibility, non-scale pattern of response, number of questions, error ratio and cross checking of responses. This study may provide managers with means of objectively evaluating and improving decisions.