• Role of Modern Methods of Data Analysis for Interpretation of Hydrologic Data in Arizona

      Kisiel, Chester C.; Duckstein, Lucien; Fogel, Martin M.; Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721; Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering | Department of Watershed Management (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      Mathematical models, requiring substantial data, of hydrologic and water resources systems are under intensive investigation. The processes of data analysis and model building are interrelated so that models may be used to forecast for scientific reasons or decision making. Examples are drawn from research on modeling aquifers, watersheds, streamflow and precipitation in Arizona. Classes of problems include model choice, parameter estimates, initial condition, input identification, forecasting, valuation, control, presence of multiple objectives, and uncertainty. Classes of data analysis include correlation methods, system identification, stationarity, independence or randomness, seasonality, event based approach, fitting of probability distributions, and analysis for runs, range and crossing levels. Time series, event based and regression methods are reviewed. The issues discussed are applied to tree-ring analyses, streamflow gaging stations, and digital modeling of small watersheds and the Tucson aquifers.
    • Weather Modification in Arizona, 1971

      Osborn, Herbert B.; USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center, Tucson, Arizona (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      There have been many efforts in recent years to modify thunderstorms through cloud seeding. Collective cloud seeding efforts in Arizona before 1971 are reviewed and an operational convective cloud seeding program carried out in Arizona in the summer of 1971 is analyzed. The comprehensive Santa Catalina cloud seeding experiment (1957 to 1964) was a randomized seeding using silver iodide. Results of this experiment are uncertain as numerous interpretations are possible. Numerous individual experiments from 1966 to 1970 at flagstaff were conducted, with uncertain results. An intensive program of seeding individual cumulus clouds with silver iodide was carried out in the summer of 1971 in central and eastern Arizona. No statistically significant changes were noted. Results of the Catalina experiment imply that seeding decreased rainfall on and downwind from the target. Two other experiments were inconclusive. Nine figures show precipitation patterns.