• The Construction of a Probability Distribution for Rainfall on a Watershed by Simulation

      Williamson, Gary; Davis, Donald Ross; Systems & Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      A raingage reading is a sample from the point rainfall population of an area. The actual average rainfall on the area (watershed) is a conditional probability distribution. For the case of thunderstorm rainfall this distribution is simulated by looking at all storms that could have produced the raingage reading. The likelihood of each storm is a function of its center depth. The amount of rain dumped on the watershed by each storm is weighted by the likelihood of its occurence and the totality of such calculations is used to produce a probability distribution of rainfall on the watershed. Examples are given to illustrate the versatility of the program and its possible use in decision analysis.
    • A Proposed Model for Flood Routing in Abstracting Ephemeral Channels

      Lane, Leonard J.; Soil and Water Conservation Research Division, Agricultural Research Service, USDA; Arizona Agricultural Experiment Station, Tucson, Arizona; Southwest Watershed Research Center, Tucson, Arizona 85705 (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      Almost all runoff from semiarid rangeland watersheds in southern Arizona results from intense highly variable thunderstorm rainfall. Abstractions, or transmission losses, are important in diminishing streamflow, supporting riparian vegetation and providing natural groundwater recharge. A flood routing procedure is developed using data from the walnut gulch experimental watershed, where flood movement and transmission losses are represented by a system using storage in the channel reach as a state variable which determines loss rates. Abstractions are computed as a cascade of general components in linear form. Wide variation in the parameters of this linear model with increasing inflow indicates that a linear relation between losses and storage is probably incorrect for ephemeral channels.
    • Weather Modification in Arizona, 1971

      Osborn, Herbert B.; USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center, Tucson, Arizona (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1972-05-06)
      There have been many efforts in recent years to modify thunderstorms through cloud seeding. Collective cloud seeding efforts in Arizona before 1971 are reviewed and an operational convective cloud seeding program carried out in Arizona in the summer of 1971 is analyzed. The comprehensive Santa Catalina cloud seeding experiment (1957 to 1964) was a randomized seeding using silver iodide. Results of this experiment are uncertain as numerous interpretations are possible. Numerous individual experiments from 1966 to 1970 at flagstaff were conducted, with uncertain results. An intensive program of seeding individual cumulus clouds with silver iodide was carried out in the summer of 1971 in central and eastern Arizona. No statistically significant changes were noted. Results of the Catalina experiment imply that seeding decreased rainfall on and downwind from the target. Two other experiments were inconclusive. Nine figures show precipitation patterns.