• The Arizona Water Commission's Central Arizona Project Water Allocation Model System

      Briggs, Philip C.; Arizona Water Commission, Phoenix, Arizona (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1977-04-16)
      The purpose and operation of the Central Arizona Project water allocation model system are described, based on a system analysis approach developed over the past 30 years into an interdisciplinary science for the study and resolution of complex technical management problems. The system utilizes mathematical and other simulation models designed for computer operations to effectively solve such problems as the CAP faces including those concerned with social and economic considerations. The model is composed of two major components: (1) a linear program designed to determine the optimal allocation of all sources of water to all demands and, (2) a hydrologic simulator capable of reflecting the impact of distribution alternatives on per-unit cost of delivery. The model, currently being use, has substantially contributed to a greater understanding of water usage potential in Arizona.
    • Arizona Water Policy: Changing Decision Agendas and Political Styles

      Cortner, Hanna J.; Berry, Mary P.; School of Renewable Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1977-04-16)
      It is argued that Arizona has traditionally and persistently pursued a style of politics in which state government is a reactor rather than an initiator, and that its role has been subordinate to the federal government and local and private water users. The lack of adequate water policies has led to an inability to respond to new conditions and demands, such as conflicts among traditional water users, Indian claims, rising water costs, energy developments and environmental concerns. Past themes of administrative fragmentation and lack of concern over water and water planning have been responsible for these deficiencies. There is some evidence that the customary decision-making process is changing and the state is establishing its own water planning capability.
    • A Utility Criterion for Real-time Reservoir Operation

      Duckstein, Lucien; Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Departments of Systems and Industrial Engineering and Hydrology & Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721; Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson 85721 (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1977-04-16)
      A dual purpose reservoir control problem can logically be modelled as a game against nature. The first purpose of the reservoir is flood control under uncertain inflow, which corresponds to short -range operation (SRO); the second purpose, which the present model imbeds into the first one, is water supply after the flood has receded, and corresponds to long-range operation (LRO). The reservoir manager makes release decisions based on his SRO risk. The trade-offs involved in his decision are described by a utility function, which is constructed within the framework of Keeney's multiattribute utility theory. The underlying assumptions appear to be quite natural for the reservoir control problem. To test the model, an experiment assessing the utility criterion of individuals has been performed; the results tend to confirm the plausibility of the approach. In particular, most individuals appear to have a risk-averse attitude for small floods and a risk-taking attitude for large ones.