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    Evaluating Propect Theory as a Model to Predict Risk-taking in International Relations

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    Author
    Carlson, Drew Gregory
    Issue Date
    2013
    Advisor
    Volgy, Thomas
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    The University of Arizona.
    Rights
    Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
    Abstract
    Causes of risk-taking behavior have been studied extensively in the social sciences. Research in psychology and economics in particular has contributed to a re-evaluation of how actors approach the topic of risk in international relations. Presented here is an evaluation of both the current literature base on risk in global politics and new findings and analysis. Specifically, this paper focuses on the potential of prospect theory to explain risky actions. The current literature is very strong in providing case studies that examine specific instances of risk-taking, but contains few attempts that address the entire system. Therefore, a logistical regression model was used to test the ability of prospect theory and more traditional theories to predict risky actions. The data indicates that the causes of risky actions depend upon how risk those actions are. Fairly risky military mobilizations appear to be caused by the loss of relative military power, while extremely risky mobilizations appear to be caused by the loss of domestic prosperity. This paper examines why this might be the case, and concludes that while difficult to quantify properly, prospect theory has great potential to explain behavior in international politics.
    Type
    text
    Electronic Thesis
    Degree Name
    B.A.
    Degree Level
    bachelors
    Degree Program
    Honors College
    Political Science
    Degree Grantor
    University of Arizona
    Collections
    Honors Theses

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