Climate and Conflict in Central Asia: The Effect of Climate Change on the Politics of Central Asia

Abstract

Climate change is a growing concern, which will increasingly affect many aspects of society. These effects will be felt strongest in regions that are already unstable, or underdeveloped. The nations of Central Asia are both rife with underlying tensions, as well as underdeveloped economically and politically. The cases of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are looked at in depth to deduce the effects of climate change on the natural resources of those countries, and therefore the probable results on the politics of those nations in the face of the climate change induced effects. The effect of climate change on the environment, and the ripple effect felt politically and economically, is also examined at the regional and international level. At the international level, special attention is paid to the influence of China, Russia, and the West. After examining the background, and the predicted consequences of climate change on that background, the likelihood of instability and conflict in the region is very high. Instances of particular concern are examined, as are factors that might mitigate some of the worst instability and conflict. Lessons learned from Central Asia’s experience with climate change are easily transferable to the many underdeveloped regions of the world that will soon feel the effects of climate change.