Turkey: The Causality Dilemma of Economics and Politics

Abstract

This thesis examines if Turkey’s economic relations with the European Union have impacted its political orientation between the European Union and the Middle East. The research analyzes trade flows between Turkey and these two regions while utilizing statistics on embassy establishments, high level representative visits, and events both conflict and cooperative, sent from one country's policy makers to another to understand Turkey’s recent political and economic trends. Determining each region’s actual involvement compared to their available involvement in trade and political relations, this thesis examines potential shifts over the past 12 years while looking at data that extends back 60 years. The results indicate found that although there are shifts in Turkey’s economic relations with the Middle East and the European Union, they were preceded by political shifts since the 1980’s. This was determined through significant increases in diplomatic ties with the Middle East primarily in the 20 years before the increase in trade with the Middle East developed. Data analysis showed there was no apparent correlation between number of events sent or received and the percent of trade that was shared with each region.