Uncertainties in Digital-Computer Modeling of Ground-Water Basins
AffiliationU.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, Arizona
Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona
KeywordsWater resources development -- Arizona.
Hydrology -- Arizona.
Hydrology -- Southwestern states.
Water resources development -- Southwestern states.
MetadataShow full item record
RightsCopyright ©, where appropriate, is held by the author.
Collection InformationThis article is part of the Hydrology and Water Resources in Arizona and the Southwest collections. Digital access to this material is made possible by the Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science and the University of Arizona Libraries. For more information about items in this collection, contact email@example.com.
PublisherArizona-Nevada Academy of Science
AbstractMuch future computer modeling of the responses of groundwater to water development stresses may be poorly done if the errors and limitations of digital models are not fully appreciated by groundwater hydrologists. Two digital models were constructed of the Tucson basin, one with 1,890 nodes of 1/4 square mile area each and one with 509 nodes of 1 square mile each. The starting point for the digital model was the 2-dimensional, linear, parabolic, time-and space-invariant differential equation of incompressible flow through porous media. An explicit finite-difference equivalent was determined, and a set of 1,890 equations were put in implicit form and solved on a computer in less than 20 seconds at a cost of 2.00 dollars. The errors associated with the model are discussed. In deciding what new data collected in the Tucson basin would give the most improvement in the digital model, a statistical decision theory approach was utilized in which expected opportunity loss and expected worth of sample were calculated for 5 variables. The data was computed using about 110 seconds of computer time, costing about 13.00 dollars. This technique has the advantage of including basin dynamics in estimating worth of additional data by means of using the digital model to compute all values of predicted and 'true' water levels included in the loss function.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Economic Alternatives in Solving the U. S.-Mexico Colorado River Water Salinity Problem (invited)Martin, William E.; Arizona Agricultural Experiment Station, the University of Arizona, Tucson (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1974-04-20)A proposed desalting plant is an engineering solution to the effects of a problem which could have been avoided and even now could be reduced on the farm. Water costing $125 per acre-foot will be delivered to Mexico to grow wheat, cotton, garden crops, alfalfa and safflower, of which the average value added per acre-foot was estimated at $80 for cotton and garden crops and $14 for wheat, alfalfa and safflower. The U.S. government, instead of building the desalting complex, could accomplish its purpose just as well by paying each farmer in the Yuma area, in return for the farmers reducing their drainage flow by whatever method they see fit, $114 per acre per year for the next 50 years. With proper management on the farm, the costs of managing salinity need not be high.
Water Resource Alternatives for Power Generation in ArizonaSmith, Stephen E.; DeCook, K. James; Fazzolare, Rocco A.; Nuclear Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson; Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona, Tucson (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1974-04-20)An examination of potential water sources for power plant cooling in Arizona is presented along with information pertinent to Arizona's future water needs relative to electrical usage growth. It has been projected that Arizona's peak electrical power demands in 1980 and 1990 will exceed that of 1970 by some 5000 megawatts and 16000 megawatts of electricity respectively. At present, the bulk of the electrical energy generated in the western states originates at hydroelectric installations. Utilization of nuclear reactors for power generation requires a larger amount of cooling water than is required for a comparable fossil-fueled plant. It is suggested that the utilization of reclaimed wastewater for cooling purposes is a viable and attractive alternative to groundwater pumpage from both economic and ecological standpoints. Savings arise from conservation of fuel normally required for well pumps, costs of well construction are not required, quantities of fresh water should be released for consumption by alternate users, and a previously unused resource would be effectively recycled.
A Rational Water Policy for Desert CitiesMatlock, W. G.; Agricultural Engineering, Soils, Water and Engineering Department, University of Arizona (Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 1974-04-20)Four sources of water supply for desert cities are rainfall, runoff, groundwater, and imported water, and the potential use for each varies. The government can institute various policy changes to eliminate or reduce the imbalance between water supply and demand. Restrictions should be placed on water-use luxuries such as swimming pools, subdivision lakes, fountains, etc. Water pricing should be progressive; each unit of increased use above a reasonable minimum should be charged for at an increasing rate. Runoff from individual properties, homes, storage, and supermarkets should be minimized through the use of onsite recharge wells, and various collection methods should be initiated. A campaign to acquaint the general public with a new water policy must be inaugurated.