Probability Distributions of Snow Course Data for Central Arizona

Abstract

A preliminary study of probability distributions for use on snowpack accumulation in the central Arizona highlands was made from 22 snow courses selected as having 10 or more years of available records. Due to the frequent occurrence of zero water equivalent value, application of a single continuous probability distribution is precluded. By means of two distributions, however, the snowpack water equivalent can be assessed by a binomial distribution describing the probability of snow, and a lognormal distribution describing the probability of water equivalent. The area chosen for detailed analysis is where the headwaters of many of Arizona's major river systems occur.