A Utility Criterion for Real-time Reservoir Operation

Abstract

A dual purpose reservoir control problem can logically be modelled as a game against nature. The first purpose of the reservoir is flood control under uncertain inflow, which corresponds to short -range operation (SRO); the second purpose, which the present model imbeds into the first one, is water supply after the flood has receded, and corresponds to long-range operation (LRO). The reservoir manager makes release decisions based on his SRO risk. The trade-offs involved in his decision are described by a utility function, which is constructed within the framework of Keeney's multiattribute utility theory. The underlying assumptions appear to be quite natural for the reservoir control problem. To test the model, an experiment assessing the utility criterion of individuals has been performed; the results tend to confirm the plausibility of the approach. In particular, most individuals appear to have a risk-averse attitude for small floods and a risk-taking attitude for large ones.