• Mapping the Retreat of the Debris-Covered Tasman Glacier in the Aoraki-Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand

      Sánchez-Trigueros, Fernando; Garcia, Rose (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      As anthropogenic global climate change continues to accelerate, glaciers around the world are rapidly retreating. The Tasman Glacier offers a unique opportunity to demonstrate the challenge of mapping a debris covered glacier with a contemporary and rapid loss of ice at the terminus. Landsat 4, ETM+, and 8 OLI satellite Level-2 Reflectance imagery for years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2022, are utilized for mapping the debris-covered glacier using a semi-automatic Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification. Normalized difference snow and ice index (NDSI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are threshold and used as supplemental data for interpretation and optimization of machine learning training samples. To support delineation of the debris-covered glacier at the terminus location, slope data are derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (DEM). In addition to morphometric parameters, the DEM is used to calculate the glacier flow direction required to delineate the Tasman watershed. The 2013 Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) digital glacier outline is modified to delineate the Tasman Glacier System to derive the total area. Variability of the terminus retreat is quantified by area changes of the debris- covered glacier and proglacial lake. Post classification confusion matrices are computed to assess the quality and performance of the classified images. The overall level of agreement between the ground truth data and the predicted classes using the SVM classifier is strong, with an average Kappa statistic of 85 percent and average overall accuracy of 90 percent.
    • Measuring Ground Deformation Using Interferometry

      Summerlin, Tyler (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      The 2018 earthquake near Big Island, Hawaii caused landslides and ground deformation along the east coast. Ground deformation from seismic activity is of interest to scientists as it gives indications of volcanic activity below the Earth’s surface. Measuring this deformation can be challenging and typically requires Global Positioning System (GPS) monitors in place prior to an event to measure change, however, radar satellites provide a clear picture of wide scale movements. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a collection method that compares Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) collections to measure vertical and horizontal ground displacement. This paper will outline the processes and methods used to process raw SAR data into an interferogram, a deformation map that precisely measures the ground shift after seismic events, glacial movements, or biomass change. Processing an interferogram started with reading raw radar collections from a SAR satellite such as Sentinel-1 and subsequently applying a series of conversions and transformations to create measurable data in the form of a displacement map. The calculated displacement indicates ground a sinking or downslope movement of -0.405 meters over the most active seismic area in Hawaii. The result from the interferogram and displacement map quantifies the effects of seismic activity and how InSAR can be used to accurately measure deformation for use in planning safe urban and infrastructure growth in areas of seismic activity.
    • Migration Centers of Virginia

      Korgaonkar, Yoga; Reyes, Neil (The University of Arizona., 2022-04-28)
      As the foreign-born population continues to grow in the United States, analyzing migration factors is crucial for continued growth. Immigration can be integral to the overall economy of an area as it leads to an increase of workers, business owners, taxpayers, and consumers. Virginia, specifically the Northern Virginia metropolitan region, is prime example of this correlation between a high foreign-born population and a bolstering economy. To ensure the large foreign-born population is maintained in Virginia, this study focuses on the significance and causes of migration. Several socioeconomic demographics were examined through regression and suitability analyses to understand the relationship between immigrants and an economy and migration. Based on the knowledge of push and pull migration factors, various demographics were chosen to represent these factors. The regression analysis assessed the relationship between the high foreign-born population and economic demographics, while the location suitability analysis mapped potential sites for immigration based on established migration criteria. The regression analysis proved an overall positive relationship between a large-foreign born population and an area’s overall economy, highlighting the importance of migration. The location suitability analysis demonstrated the draw, in conjunction with current immigrant population demographics, to those large urban centers with higher levels of socioeconomic advancement. The final cartographic products will demonstrate the importance of immigration to stimulate an area’s economy and produce recommendations for migration centers.
    • Modeling Postfire Soil Erosion and Sediment Deposition on the Tonto National Monument with the Unit Stream Power Erosion and Deposition Model

      Sanchez, Fernando; Macias, Michael (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      A major consequence of wildfire events is the acceleration of soil erosion by surface runoff. During a rainfall event, soil may become detached, transported, and eventually deposited elsewhere on the landscape. One approach to predict whether and where this erosion process could occur requires determining six empirically established factors, namely, rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, slope steepness, vegetation cover, and erosion management methods. This project analyzed these landscape factors on the Tonto National Monument, an archaeologically rich site containing 14th century cliff dwellings in central Arizona’s Tonto Basin. In the summer of 2019, over 80% of the monument burned, threatening its natural and cultural resources both from the fire itself and from the postfire erosion that followed. Chosen for its ability to predict both soil erosion and sediment deposition, the Unit-Stream-Power-Erosion-and-Deposition Model identified areas of the monument where the erosion process may have occurred and to what extent. This project used high resolution data to obtain each factor in raster format followed by further calculations based on changes in sediment transport capacity using a Geographic Information System (GIS) called ArcGIS Pro. The model predicted that 13.5% of the monument had high erosion, 27% moderate erosion, 15.5% low erosion, 8.7% stable, 3.2% low deposition, 6.2% moderate deposition, and 25.7% high deposition. Although this project’s methodology focused on the 2019 fire event, it offers resource managers on the monument an approach to monitor and mitigate potential future fire events, reducing costs and focusing efforts to areas of highest risk.
    • Modeling the Change in Distribution of an Endangered Lichen Species Under Projected Climate Conditions

      Sánchez-Trigueros, Fernando; Jones, Julia (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      Sulcaria spiralifera, or Dune Hair Lichen, is endemic to coastal dune forests along the Pacific coast in the continental United States. The species’ habitat is vulnerable to drought and temperature extremes. Modeling the possible impact of climate change can assist with conservation planning and bolster preservation of the entire ecosystem. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the distribution of a rare and endangered species by using the maximum entropy probability distribution principal to build a predictive species distribution model. The approach has demonstrated success in predicting the distribution of rare species that may include limited data and lack points of absence. The probable distribution of the species was modeled under current and historic climate conditions and used to train new models that would predict distribution under future climate conditions. Results of the project show a spatial change in habitat between 2021 and 2100 with suitable locations becoming more abundant. Positive changes in presence predict a shift inland while locations along the coast experience negative change. Despite an overall increase in suitable habitat, the predicted point of presence remains relatively stable with gradual increases around 2% every 20 years until a decrease of 4% between 2080 and 2100. Although the models show an increase in habitat suitability over time, it is unclear whether the Dune Hair Lichen could survive potential relocation as habitat shifts inland. The species distribution model under future climate conditions can help conservationists monitor and inventory the species to assess adaptation success.
    • Modeling the Hillside Development Overlay Zone

      Psillas, Jennifer; Avis, Jack; Jackson, Chloe (The University of Arizona., 2016-12)
      Sustainable urban growth can be achieved in part by increasing density through infill development. Done right, infill development encourages already developed areas to become more diverse and livable, while limiting urban sprawl and all the public health, environmental, and infrastructure problems that accompany it. In Pima County’s 2015 update to the Comprehensive Plan, infill development is identified as a goal for land use policy. This study utilizes a Python script to build a model of the Hillside Development Overlay Zone (HDZ) to aid in removing zoning barriers to this goal. This a) improves the permitting process; b) encourages purchase of parcels outside of hillside areas and; c) encourages innovative design on hillside areas. The visualization is available on Pima County’s MapGuide website, allowing developers to make informed decisions about purchasing, permitting, and designing on HDZ parcels. In addition, this study uses a Kernel Density analysis to suggest areas where HDZ can be removed, without losing protection for mountainous areas. These suggestions are submitted to Pima County Development Services.
    • Monitoring the Mega Drought and the effects it has on Reservoirs in Southwest Colorado using a Change Detection Analysis

      Sánchez-Trigueros, Fernando; Busby, Blake (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      All across the Western portion of the United States water is an increasing topic of concern. A majority of the mainstream discussion revolves around Lake Mead and Lake Powel the two largest reservoirs in the United States. This project aims to shed light on the “Mega Drought” impacting three reservoirs in Southwest Colorado, McPhee Reservoir, Lemon Reservoir, and Vallecito Reservoir. The way the impact of the “Mega Drought” will be monitored is by generating a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) every year from 2013-2021. The NDWIs were generated by using Landsat 8 OLI data. The data was compiled into ArcGIS Pro software. That data was compiled into a multidimensional raster format so a time series analysis could be performed as well as the generation of a change detection raster. To quantify the results of the NDWI sample points were generated to extract the pixel values. The results of this study showed that over the nine-year study that reservoir levels rose to the highest value in 2016 and have continued to fall to the year 2021. In 2021 all their reservoirs are registered with an average NDWI value that is classified as a moderate drought, non-aqueous surfaces. The results of this research are showing that these 3 reservoirs in Southwest Colorado are decreasing in volume year after year. Mostly caused by decreasing snowpack, warmer spring and summer temperatures, and increasingly unproductive monsoon seasons.
    • Monitoring urban land-use trends using remote sensed imagery and GIS for the Tucson, Arizona metropolitan region

      Danloe, John; Labadie, Philippe-Luis; Psillas, Jen; Lukinbeal, Chris (The University of Arizona., 2016-12-18)
      This project demonstrates the usefulness of using remotely sensed imagery in conjunction with GIS for urban studies. Utilizing 1-meter high-resolution imagery and GIS, this project provides land-cover change statistics and spatial variables describing new urban development. Statistics of land-cover change were used to quantify the amount of new urban development in acreage. The project then employed a global logistic regression to determine the significant topographic variables influencing the new urban development. The project focused on urban growth from 1998 to 2010 for the Greater Tucson Metropolitan Region. These methods provide accurate and useful information for quantifying urban growth.
    • New method to identify illegal uses of water by using remote sensing and neural network in Laguna de Aculeo, Chile

      Sanchez Trigueros, Fernando; Venegas-Quiñones, Héctor L. (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      The Aculeo lagoon basin has been declared an emergency drought place, limiting water usage strictly for domestic use. Chile's laws impose economic sanctions on individuals who use water resources to irrigate grass in these places. This project evaluates the healthy lawn condition in a specific dry season (period without rain events) to identify the areas that have potentially been using the water resource illegally by using multi-spectral and multitemporal free satellite data at the Aculeo lagoon basin. We derive different soil indices, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), Moisture Stress Index (MSI), and Bare Soil Index (BSI) during October 2021 to April 2022. Also, we perform a cluster analysis to evaluate the statistical distribution of healthy vegetation cover. All the results are available in an ArcGIS interactive web map. This research proves some properties have probably used water to irrigate lawns because their health has maintained or increased over time. Thus, we estimate the lawn areas in the basin and their water consumption to illustrate how much water has been used illegally. In addition, the cluster analysis demonstrates a consistent pattern of healthy vegetation covers, concluding that these groupings are unusual compared to the entire basin. We present tools and protocols to be used in areas of water scarcity to identify locations that use the water resource illegally, helping governmental authorities to accomplish personal inspections and impose legal sanctions.
    • The Northern Chaco Outliers Project: Surface Hydrology of the Lakeview Community

      Korgaonkar, Yoga; Grundvig, Jeremy (The University of Arizona., 2022-04-28)
      Farming was introduced and thrived in the high desert of the four-corners region since ca. A.D. 500. As subsistence patterns shifted from hunting and gathering to a more sedentary lifestyle based on agriculture, access to reliable water sources became increasingly crucial. Utilizing ESRI’s ArcGIS Pro, a Geographical Information System (GIS), I look at the surface hydrology of an ancestral Pueblo community in southwest Colorado using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), to calculate the path and velocity of the community’s watershed. Using higher resolutions DEMs which have become available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), I calculate the watershed using DEMs derived from 30-meters, 10-meters and 1-meter. The results are aiding researchers at Crow Canyon Archaeological Center to better understand ancestral inhabitants’ environments by providing models to aid in investigations to include stream flow, historic route changes, possibly water control features, seep spring locations, and agriculture potential. The various DEMs are used to delineate a watershed under 100 square kilometers, focusing on the Lakeview Community. The differing results display how the 30-meter resolution provides insight to prehistoric stream routes while detailed resolutions aid in the investigation of natural springs and the hydrologic impacts of historic irrigation projects. The results are part of a long-term environmental study to better understand how ancestral inhabitants used their terrain and resources and whether a community’s location intentionally sought to take advantage of local hydrology, arable soil or other factors.
    • Opioid Treatment Accessibility in Maricopa County, Arizona: A Network Analysis of Certified Opioid Treatment Programs and Buprenorphine Providers

      Sanchez-Trigueros, Fernando; Jacobs, Amanda (The University of Arizona., 2020-05)
      The United States opioid epidemic has been at the forefront of national response efforts. Despite tightening regulations on opioid prescribing, opioid addiction continues to be problematic. This study was designed to analyze opioid treatment accessibility in Maricopa County, Arizona, one of the most populous counties in the U.S. Based on data from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 656 buprenorphine providers and 182 certified opioid treatment center locations in Maricopa County were incorporated to evaluate for treatment accessibility. Using GIS network analyst tools, distance to the closest treatment location was determined for each Maricopa County census tract. To further visualize accessibility, 2.5, 5, and 10-mile service areas were also located. The analysis demonstrated route distances increased moving outwards from the urban city areas of Maricopa County. Likewise, service areas also tended to branch outward from the urban city core. Spatially, rural areas are disproportionately impacted with regards to opioid treatment accessibility and populations living in these areas are at higher risk for encountering barriers to opioid treatment. These findings provide key information that may assist in population health outreach services and potentially useful data for public health policy efforts aimed at improving access to opioid addiction treatment.

      Mason, Jennifer; Bacon, Thomas (The University of Arizona., 2022-05)
      Violent crime has risen sharply in Minneapolis in the last two years and with that, youth and teenagers as young as 13 years old participating in violent crime has also seen a sharp increase. With on-going teacher strikes, remote learning, and other factors allowing youth more opportunity to be out of school, Minneapolis can greatly benefit from the implementation of a new community center. Attempting to solve this problem comes with a twofold approach of an overlay analysis, analyzing socio-economic factors, currently occupied and vacant public institutions, and relative crime per neighborhood – then using these same variables with a weighted overlay analysis. The simple overlay approach indicates that a community center would be optimally placed in Northeast Minneapolis however, it should be noted that the relative crime there is far lower than any location the weighted overlay would result in. The results from the weighted analysis are far more practical than the results of the simple overlay would suggest, having more possible locations in North and South Minneapolis. It would be beneficial to talk to community stakeholders and gather their opinion for influence on the weighted overlay for future iterations of this research.
    • Protecting Ka Mo'omeheu O Hawai'i: A Cultural Resources Risk Assessment

      Sanchez, Fernando; Ruddell, Kasiah (The University of Arizona., 2021-08)
      Archaeological and historic sites are important to contemporary societies all over the world, especially to peoples like the Kanaka Maoli, or Native Hawaiians, who have suffered the attempted theft of their culture and identity. The Hawaiian Island of Oahu is rich with cultural resources including over 2,000 archaeological and historic sites. Oahu is the most populated and industrial of the Hawaiian Islands and is not escaping climate change caused sea level rise and coastal erosion, so these sites are at risk of being damaged or lost. With so many cultural resources, it is difficult to discern what threatens each site via standard observation and field methods. In this study, a Cultural Resources Vulnerability Index is used to determine the level of risk for cultural resource sites on Oahu. This index combines both coastal vulnerability and anthropogenic risk factors as well as position on the island to provide a risk ranking. Coastal vulnerability includes flood zones, sea level rise, coastal erosion, elevation, and slope and anthropogenic factors include location in State Land Use Districts, population density, and air pollution. With such a rich density of cultural resources, this study illustrates how GIS can be used to examine multiple risks and ultimately ascertain which sites need immediate action. Lastly, a dashboard application is used for easy visualization of the results.

      Korgaonkar, Yoga; Pober, Rachel (The University of Arizona., 2022-05-02)
      Proximity to a water source has been a consistent environmental variable used in predictive modeling of archeological site locations. Currently, there is limited research that has been done to quantify the relationship between water sources and archeological site locations. The Sand Hollow area, located in Southern Utah, has had many modern construction projects consisting of roadway expansions, a reservoir, and golf courses. These projects required compliance with Section 106 consisting of mitigation measures using archeological excavation. With these required excavations, the Sand Hollow area provides a robust dataset of archeological sites. Thus, the Sand Hollow area is used as a case study to research if there is a correlation between hydrologic features and archeological sites using GIS. Sand Hollow reservoir was constructed in June 2000. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was downloaded from February 2000 to remove impacts from modern construction of the reservoir on the derived hydrologic features. To quantify the relationship between archeological sites and hydrologic features, buffer zones at 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, and >500 meters from hydrologic features are created. The chi-squared test is used to compare the observed to the expected relationship between archeological sites and hydrologic features. Through these methods, archeological sites were found to have a significant relationship to hydrologic features within the study area. The archeological dataset from Shifting Sands is divided into three time periods of Archaic, Anasazi, and Late Prehistoric. Using the chi-squared test, the Anasazi period has the most significant relationship to hydrologic features.
    • Recent Violent Crime Dynamics and Spatial Patterns in Albuquerque, New Mexico

      Sanchez-Trigueros, Fernando; Schiffer, Dustin (The University of Arizona., 2019-12)
      This project is an analysis of violent crime in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. In 2014, the DOJ opened an investigation into the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) which resulted in APD’s officer numbers dwindling, and making the officers that stay afraid to use their entire tool and skill set. This project uses raw data retrieved directly from APDs API to detect historical and geospatial patterns in Albuquerque crime data. It also uses complimentary data sets such as current station placement, and school locations. Using a Pareto (80/20) analysis, violent crimes were clustered together for an analysis on incident counts within a quarter mile of schools, and how far away the higher incident count buffers are from current stations. Space-Time (time-cube) analysis was applied with violent crime dates to identify areas that may be experiencing new patterns. The results were compared to the overall data that has been touted by the current city administration. This administration has claimed that crime numbers are going down. The results in this project, however, contradict these claims. The workflow and results described in this report will help identify areas that may require more extensive attention from law enforcement agencies in Albuquerque.

      Mason, Jennifer; Strobin, Georgianna (The University of Arizona., 2022-04-28)
      Floods pose an acute risk to transportation networks and impose large costs on travelers. A twenty-mile section of Interstate 5 (I-5) was forced to close on January 7th, 2022, when rising floodwaters from the Chehalis, Skookumchuck, and Newaukum Rivers threatened to cover the highway. Many travelers and residents were unable to reach their destinations and alternate routes quickly became congested. This retroactive analysis investigated the total cost of the flood closure using traffic counts from permanent traffic recording stations, AAA’s estimated cost per mile of operating a vehicle for 2021, and the standard velocity equation—time equals distance divided by velocity—to solve for time cost. Through a GIS-based network analysis, two unique alternative routes are identified and time and mileage costs for travelers are calculated. Route One costs $151.97 while Route Two costs $160.67 in time per vehicle. Respectively, the routes cost $103.65 and $114.20 in mileage costs for each vehicle. Additionally, two historic Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) detour routes are compared in time and mileage costs. Historic Route One costs $266.10 in mileage and $703.94 in time. Historic Route Two is much more expensive at $338.10 in mileage and $1,136.47 in time. The total cost of the flood closure was $924,950. With only one direct route to access so many destinations, it continues to be vitally important to increase access to urban and rural destinations during flood disasters.
    • Seattle Crime

      Sanchez, Fernando; Bieler, Alec (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      The purpose of this Master Report is to spatially analyze violent crime rates in Seattle in 2020 to determine common demographic or locational relationships. I will be testing population subsets, number of households, mandatory affordable housing zones, unwanted land, and police station locations against crime using various types of analysis including spatial regression, heat maps, and bivariate maps. The data comes from Seattle City GIS including base map layers and 3,300 violent crimes. Population data came from the US Census Bureau. Preliminary results show a strong relationship between mandatory affordable housing and increased crime rates.
    • Selecting Prospective Sites for Future Riparian Areas in Arizona

      Korgaonkar, Yoga; Rhodes, Patrick (The University of Arizona., 2022-04-28)
      Within the desert areas of Arizona, riparian habitat attracts a diverse range of flora and fauna, concentrating their populations along the banks of streams and washes. Due to a variety of factors over the past century, these areas have degraded in size and quality, resulting in a loss of native vegetation and wildlife habitat. Ultimately, if this trend is to be reversed, one approach might be to create new, artificial riparian areas. To achieve that, suitable, non-riparian locations must first be identified for possible conversion into prospective riparian zones. Hence, the goal of this project is to perform a suitability analysis to locate tracts of land within Arizona which might be suitable for riparian conversion. Issues such as water rights, engineering, and funding are not covered in this paper. Several spatial criteria were identified as indicators for success, including land ownership, flooding potential, fire potential, length of streams/washes, proximity to human development and current habitat. Many geographic datasets were utilized to produce maps showing these locations, according to their ability to apply these criteria. Further, once these locations were identified, a historical analysis was performed to show the vegetative health of each area over time, as well as potential rainfall metrics, both of which provided detailed indicators of success. The results revealed several tracts of land in disparate areas which fulfilled all criteria and could be considered for Arizona riparian habitat conversion projects.
    • Site Suitability Analysis for a Land Conservation Easement in El Paso, Texas

      Korgaonkar, Yoga; Van Essen, Daniel (The University of Arizona., 2022-05-02)
      The Chihuahuan desert is an ecologically diverse landscape and the largest desert in North America, covering parts of New Mexico, Texas, and northeastern Mexico. Urbanization, overgrazing, and water depletion threatens the viability of this ecosystem. For the protection of this desert and the wildlife and waterways within it, land conservation is integral. One land conservation strategy is the establishment of a land conservation easement. This type of easement is a voluntary agreement with a non-profit organization or government agency that prevents development and specifies best practices within the easement while the owner of the land maintains ownership. In response to the need of land conservation, this study utilizes a multi-criteria evaluation with weighted overlay technique to identify suitable and ecologically valuable land for a land conservation easement in El Paso County, Texas. Criteria for suitability was developed with Frontera Land Alliance, a non-profit conservation organization. GIS software was utilized to implement the multi-criteria evaluation with weighted overlay technique and map suitable conservation land in El Paso County. This study ranks all land within El Paso County based on a scale of five with one being the least suitable land and five being the most suitable land. Approximately 77,916 acres of land, equating to 12 percent of the land within El Paso County was ranked as a five in terms of high suitability. This study identifies the twenty-five most suitable parcels for a land conservation easement. The results of the study will help Frontera Land Alliance identify the most suitable parcels to pursue acquisition for a land conservation easement.

      Mason, Jennifer; Barnard, Heather (The University of Arizona., 2022)
      Greenspace is an area of vegetated land (grass, trees, shrubs, etc.) within an urban context. Green spaces can be community gardens, parks, common land, playing fields, and green corridors like exercise paths, rivers, and canals. Green spaces play an important role in an urban ‘ecosystem’ by providing a place for physical activity, relaxation, social interaction, community events, and so on. In high-density urban areas, green spaces can provide a place relatively free from air and noise pollution. Green spaces with water features can play a critical role in cooling cities. Maricopa County added more new residents than any county in the nation from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2021, according to the Census Bureau. With the growth of the population and many new developments, it is important to determine the best placement for new green spaces. This analysis uses GIS processes to perform a site suitability analysis that locates potential sites for new green spaces within Maricopa County. The first part of this analysis performs a Boolean Suitability Modeling which identifies areas best suitable for new green spaces based on different criteria. The criteria for making a new green space are more suitable areas further away from existing parks, unused/undeveloped land, higher populated areas, lower income areas, and areas closer to public transportation routes. The second part of the analysis performs a weighted suitability analysis. The outcome of this project will provide a roadmap for the county to determine areas best for new green spaces and to meet the community’s needs.