Pima County's Open Space Ranch Preserves: Predictive Modeling of Site Locations for Three Time Periods at Rancho Seco

Abstract

The initiatives of open space conservation, as outlined in the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan, have been implemented through the purchase of nearly 65 thousand acres by Pima County. This land abuts sections of grazing leases held by state and federal agencies, forming largely unfragmented landscapes surrounding the city's urban core. Much of the outlying acreage is rural historic working ranches, now managed as open space conservation preserves. Ranches are landscapes of low-intensity impact, where the archaeological record of centuries of human land use is well preserved. Much of the land, however, remains relatively unstudied. To refine spatial predictions of archaeologically sensitive areas in southern Pima County, I use multivariate logistic regression to develop predictive models of probable archaeological site locations for three time periods at Rancho Seco as a case study. Results suggest portions Rancho Seco might contain additional Preceramic and Historic cultural resources but additional data collection is needed.