Using Scenario Planning to Prepare for Uncertainty in Rural Watersheds

Abstract

Planning for an uncertain future presents many challenges. Thinking systematically and creatively about what is in store through a process called scenario planning can help illuminate options for action and improve decision-making. This guide focuses on a process for developing scenarios to help communities and watershed groups explore what might happen in the years to come, make more informed decisions today, and build a watershed management process. The systematic approach to scenario planning described here is based on the lessons learned through a yearlong scenario planning process in the Upper Gila Watershed in southeastern Arizona and Water Resource Research Center’s (WRRC) research on scenario planning.