A Case for Waste Fraud and Abuse: Stopping the Air Force from Purchasing Spacecraft That Fail Prematurely
Affiliation
Failure AnalysisIssue Date
2011-10Keywords
TelemetryPrognostic
Failure Prediction
Failure Analysis
Diagnostic
Satellite Failure
Launch Vehicle Failure
Failure Analysis
Prognostic Analysis
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Copyright © held by the author; distribution rights International Foundation for TelemeteringCollection Information
Proceedings from the International Telemetering Conference are made available by the International Foundation for Telemetering and the University of Arizona Libraries. Visit http://www.telemetry.org/index.php/contact-us if you have questions about items in this collection.Abstract
Spacecraft and launch vehicle reliability is dominated by premature equipment failures and surprise equipment failures that increase risk and decrease safety, mission assurance and effectiveness. Large, complex aerospace systems such as aircraft, launch vehicle and satellites are first subjected to most exhaustive and comprehensive acceptance testing program used in any industry and yet suffer from the highest premature failure rates. Desired/required spacecraft equipment performance is confirmed during factory testing using telemetry, however equipment mission life requirement is not measured but calculated manually and so the equipment that will fail prematurely are not identified and replaced before use. Spacecraft equipment mission-life is not measured and confirmed before launch as performance is but calculated using stochastic equations from probability reliability analysis engineering standards such as MIL STD 217. The change in the engineering practices used to manufacture and test spacecraft necessary to identify the equipment that will fail prematurely include using a prognostic and health management (PHM) program. A PHM includes using predictive algorithms to convert equipment telemetry into a measurement of equipment remaining usable life. A PHM makes the generation, collection, storage and engineering and scientific analysis of equipment performance data "mission critical" rather than just nice-to-have engineering information.Sponsors
International Foundation for TelemeteringISSN
0884-51230074-9079
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STOPPING LAUNCH PAD DELAYS, LAUNCH FAILURES, SATELLITE INFANT MORTALITIES AND ON ORBIT SATELLITE FAILURES USING TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC TECHNOLOGY(International Foundation for Telemetering, 2007-10)Telemetry Prognostics is Failure Prediction using telemetry for launch vehicle and satellite space flight equipment to stop launch failures, launch pad delays, satellite infant mortalities and satellite on orbit failures. This technology characterizes telemetry behaviors that are latent, transient, and go undetected by the most experienced engineering personnel and software diagnostic tools during integration and test, launch operations and on orbit activities stopping launch pad delays, launch failures, infant mortalities and on orbit failures. Telemetry prognostics yield a technology with state-of-the-art innovative techniques for determining critical on-board equipment remaining useful life taking into account system states, attitude reorientations, equipment usage patterns, failure modes and piece part failure characteristics to increase the reliability, usability, serviceability, availability and safety of our nation’s space systems.
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ZINC SULFATE SUPPLEMENTATION IN CHRONIC RENAL FAILURE PATIENTS REQUIRING HEMODIALYSIS.(The University of Arizona., 1983)The effects of 18 milligrams elemental zinc as zinc sulfate were investigated in 24 hemodialysis patients during a double blind study. The study was conducted at two different dialysis centers in Utah. Each patient was evaluated for a 12 week period. The effects of zinc supplementation were evaluated using the parameters of serum zinc, hair zinc, dialysate zinc, and objective and subjective taste evaluation procedures. To possibly clearify the above determination in zinc status, copper determination were made of the same parameters. In addition, determinations of serum ferritin, transferrin and iron levels were made. A three day diet record was used to document the dietary intakes of calories, protein, and zinc as well as indicate the balance of food groups in the diets. Patients were evaluated biweekly throughout the study period. There were a total of six evaluations made on each participant during the investigation. Complete data were collected on six patients in the treatment group, and on ten patients in the control group. Even though the sample size was small, results were very steady and values fell within narrow ranges for most parameters examined. The mean baseline serum zinc value (n = 24) was 56 micrograms per deciliter. Patients, by this value would be classified as zinc deficient. However, the hair zinc levels were within the normal range, and no other signs or symptoms of zinc deficiency were evident in any patient, other than altered taste. There were no differences between pre and post dialysis serum zinc levels, nor were there any consistent increases in zinc levels cleared from the plasma during dialysis. There were no increases seen in the serum zinc or hair levels in response to zinc supplementation. Furthermore, there was no significant improvement in the taste acuities of the treatment group patients compared to the controls. The low serum levels maintained were probably due to the redistribution of body zinc known to occur in uremia. Most patients improved their taste test scores. This displayed the learning phenomena that was inherent in the taste testing technique. Furthermore, hemodialysis patients and the failure of many subjects to identify all four tastants (sweet, sour, bitter, and salt) correctly. Daily dietary intakes of high bioglogical value protein and zinc by the patients were less than the amounts recommended by the National Dietary Counsil and the physicians. However, the daily intakes of protein (55 grams) and zinc (7.9 milligrams) were not limited to the level where deficiency signs or symptoms of either nutrient were seen. Copper serum levels were all within the normal range. The mean baseline level for all patients was 113 micrograms per deciliter. Copper status appeared unaffected by uremia or hemodialysis. Body stores of iron, determined by serum ferritin levels, ranged from possibly indicating iron deficiency to iron overload. The body iron stores did not correlate with patients’ responses to the oral zinc supplementation.
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PREDICTION OF ACADEMIC SUCCESS OR FAILURE OF ALGEBRA I STUDENTS.(The University of Arizona., 1983)The purpose of this study was to determine if selected variables were significant predictors for the academic success or failure of Algebra I students. Two methods of data gathering were used in the study. The Student Attribution Inventory (SAI) was first administered to the classes during one class period. One hundred eighty-five students participated. Only two students could not because of a language barrier. The second method of data gathering was done by the researcher. First, a letter was sent home to the students' parents for permission to use the cumulative folders of their sons and daughters. Letters were collected daily by the teacher and weekly by the researcher. A follow-up letter was sent home several weeks later to those parents who had not previously responded. Once permission was granted, the researcher received the cumulative folders and obtained the necessary information. Out of 185 students, 110 were used in the study. Stepwise multiple regression was used for four of the eight hypotheses. These were tested at the .05 level of significance. This level of prediction was used to determine if selected variables were significant predictors for the academic success or failure of Algebra I students. The findings showed that achievement motivation (a resultant behavior of an emotional conflict between hopes for success and fears of failure), luck (external, unstable, unintentional factor which is related to the perceived randomness in events), and previous mathematics achievement (as measured by the California Achievement Test (CAT)), were the variables found to be statistically significant. Ability, previous reading achievement, and age were not entered into the regression equation by the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) because of insufficient predictability. The remaining hypotheses employed t-tests as the statistical method of testing. These four hypotheses were also tested at the .05 level of significance. The results showed that neither sex differences nor ethnic groups were significant in prediction of Algebra I final grades and achievement motivation. Further research is necessary to increase the understanding of achievement motivation and luck in classroom situations, counseling sessions, and group dynamics.
