Results from the Prognostic Analysis Completed on the NASA EUVE Satellite to Measure Equipment Mission Life

Abstract

This paper addresses the research conducted at U.C. Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory, Center for Extreme Ultra Violet Astrophysics between 1994 and 1995 on the NASA EUVE ion-orbit satellite. It includes the results from conducting a scientific analysis called a prognostic analysis completed on all satellite subsystem equipment. A prognostic analysis uses equipment analog telemetry to measure equipment remaining usable life. The analysis relates equipment transient behavior, often referred to as "cannot duplicates" in a variety of industries caused from accelerated aging to the equipment end-of-life with certainty. The analysis was confirmed by using proprietary, pattern recognition software by Lockheed Martin personnel Lockheed Martin personnel completed an exploration into the application of statistical pattern recognition methods to identify the behavior caused from accelerated aging that experts in probability reliability analysis claims cannot exist. Both visual and statistical methods were successful in detecting suspect accelerated aging and this behavior was related to equipment end of life with certainty. The long-term objective of this research was to confirm that satellite subsystem equipment failures could be predicted so that satellite subsystem and payload engineering personnel could be allocated for only the time that equipment failures were predicted to occur, lowering the cost of mission operations. This research concluded that satellite subsystem equipment remaining usable life could be measured and equipment failures could be predicted with certainty so that engineering support for mission operations could be greatly reduced.