RSS 1.0UA Faculty Research
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These collections include publications and data from University of Arizona faculty, staff and researchers. The UA Faculty Publications collection consists primarily of open access versions of published journal articles, but also contains conference proceedings and other unique materials from faculty, staff and researchers. Organizational collections, such as the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences Publications, and Water Resources Research Center, contain additional faculty publications such as departmentally produced technical bulletins, technical reports, and working papers.
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Designing Institutions to Support Local-Level Climate Change Adaptation: Insights from a Case Study of the U.S. Cooperative Extension SystemIn light of global climate change, adaptation will be necessary at all levels of social organization. However, the adaptation literature emphasizes that because the impacts of climate change and vulnerability are locally specific, adaptation is inevitably local. In this paper, in order to inform the design of institutions that can encourage and support effective local-level adaptation, the authors derive principles for their design theoretically and use a case study to explore how these principles could be practically implemented. Ten design principles are synthesized from principles derived from reviews of the literatures on local-level adaptation, usable science, and boundary organizations. Bringing these three literatures together highlights the characteristics of boundary organizations that make them particularly valuable for addressing the challenges of local-level adaptation. The case study then illustrates how an existing boundary organization, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, of the U.S. Cooperative Extension System (CES), implements these principles in its organizational structure and in the daily practice of Extension professionals. It also highlights the significance of the CES’s existing social networks and social capital for facilitating their implementation. From the case study it is concluded that the CES is uniquely positioned to serve an important role in a national adaptation strategy for the United States in supporting local-level adaptation in urban and rural communities across the country.
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CHANGE: Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the EnvironmentRecent research shows profound changes underway in climate and hydrology and their effects on ecosystems and water resources. Along international borders, climate, water, and governance interact at multiple levels, increasing the complexity of managing water and natural resources. Moreover, the effective use of climatological and hydrological information particular to the border areas is constrained by a lack of understanding between scientists and decision makers and by regulatory and legal constraints. Motivated by these concerns, Mexican, American, and Canadian climate specialists, social scientists, and agency representatives attending a workshop on environmental change proposed a collegial North American knowledge network to better infuse climate, water, and policy science into transboundary decision making.
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Wildfire Management and Forecasting Fire Potential: The Roles of Climate Information and Social Networks in the Southwest United StatesContinuing progress in the fields of meteorology, climatology, and fire ecology has enabled more proactive and risk-tolerant wildland fire management practices in the United States. Recent institutional changes have also facilitated the incorporation of more advanced climate and weather research into wildland fire management. One of the most significant changes was the creation of Predictive Services in 1998, a federal interagency group composed, in part, of meteorologists who create climate- and weather-based fire outlooks tailored to fire manager needs. Despite the numerous forecast products now available to fire managers, few studies have examined how these products have affected their practices. In this paper the authors assess how fire managers in the Southwest region of the United States perceive and incorporate different types of information into their management practices. A social network analysis demonstrates that meteorologists have become central figures in disseminating information in the regional interagency fire management network. Interviews and survey data indicate that person-to-person communication during planning phases prior to the primary fire season is key to Predictive Services’ success in supporting fire managers’ decision making. Over several months leading up to the fire season, predictive forecasts based on complex climate, fuels, and fire-risk models are explained to fire managers and updated through frequent communication. The study’s findings suggest that a significant benefit of the information sharing process is the dialogue it fosters among fire managers, locally, regionally, and nationally, which better prepares them to cooperate and strategically plan for the fire season.
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Climate Factors Influencing Coccidioidomycosis Seasonality and OutbreaksAlthough broad links between climatic factors and coccidioidomycosis have been established, the identification of simple and robust relationships linking climatic controls to seasonal timing and outbreaks of the disease has remained elusive. Using an adaptive data-oriented method for estimating date of exposure, in this article I analyze hypotheses linking climate and dust to fungal growth and dispersion, and evaluate their respective roles for Pima County, Arizona. Results confirm a strong bimodal disease seasonality that was suspected but not previously seen in reported data. Dispersion-related conditions are important predictors of coccidioidomycosis incidence during fall, winter, and the arid foresummer. However, precipitation during the normally arid foresummer 1.5–2 years before the season of exposure is the dominant predictor of the disease in all seasons, accounting for half of the overall variance. Cross-validated models combining antecedent and concurrent conditions explain 80% of the variance in coccidioidomycosis incidence.
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Applications of Monsoon Research: Opportunities to Inform Decision Making and Reduce Regional VulnerabilityThis article presents ongoing efforts to understand interactions between the North American monsoon and society in order to develop applications for monsoon research in a highly complex, multicultural, and binational region. The North American monsoon is an annual precipitation regime that begins in early June in Mexico and progresses northward to the southwestern United States. The region includes stakeholders in large urban complexes, productive agricultural areas, and sparsely populated arid and semiarid ecosystems. The political, cultural, and socioeconomic divisions between the United States and Mexico create a broad range of sensitivities to climate variability as well as capacities to use forecasts and other information to cope with climate. This paper highlights methodologies to link climate science with society and to analyze opportunities for monsoon science to benefit society in four sectors: natural hazards management, agriculture, public health, and water management. A list of stakeholder needs and a calendar of decisions is synthesized to help scientists link user needs to potential forecasts and products. To ensure usability of forecasts and other research products, iterative scientist–stakeholder interactions, through integrated assessments, are recommended. These knowledge-exchange interactions can improve the capacity for stakeholders to use forecasts thoughtfully and inform the development of research, and for the research community to obtain feedback on climate-related products and receive insights to guide research direction. It is expected that integrated assessments can capitalize on the opportunities for monsoon science to inform decision making and, in the best instances, reduce regional climate vulnerabilities and enhance regional sustainability.
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Reconstructions of Columbia River Streamflow from Tree‐Ring Chronologies in the Pacific Northwest, USAWe developed Columbia River streamflow reconstructions using a network of existing, new, and updated tree-ring records sensitive to the main climatic factors governing discharge. Reconstruction quality is enhanced by incorporating tree-ring chronologies where high snowpack limits growth, which better represent the contribution of cool-season precipitation to flow than chronologies from trees positively sensitive to hydroclimate alone. The best performing reconstruction (back to 1609 CE) explains 59% of the historical variability and the longest reconstruction (back to 1502 CE) explains 52% of the variability. Droughts similar to the high-intensity, long-duration low flows observed during the 1920s and 1940s are rare, but occurred in the early 1500s and1630s-1640s. The lowest Columbia flow events appear to be reflected in chronologies both positively and negatively related to streamflow, implying low snowpack and possibly low warm-season precipitation. High flows of magnitudes observed in the instrumental record appear to have been relatively common, and high flows from the1680s to 1740s exceeded the magnitude and duration of observed wet periods in the late-19th and 20th Century. Comparisons between the Columbia River reconstructions and future projections of streamflow derived from global climate and hydrologic models show the potential for increased hydrologic variability, which could present challenges for managing water in the face of competing demands
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Weather, Climate, and Environmental Water TransactionsObtaining water for environmental purposes, such as habitat restoration or water quality improvements, has become an important objective in many parts of the world. Such water acquisitions are likely to become more challenging as regional water demand and supply patterns are altered by climate change. In regions where water supplies are already fully claimed, voluntary negotiated transactions have become a key means to obtain water for the environment. The cost of acquiring water in such transactions is hypothesized to vary with regional weather and climate conditions due to both the actual effects of temperature and precipitation on water supply and demand and the perceptions water users may hold about these effects. This article develops econometric models to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on water lease prices in four U.S. states located in the desert southwest. Water leases for environmental and nonenvironmental purposes are contrasted to understand the differing nature of these lease markets and the role of weather and climate variables. The authors’ analysis finds that temperature, precipitation, regional income, and population changes are variables that have differing effects in the two lease markets. Overall, analysis of over 20 yr of data shows the need to consider climate and weather factors given the growing importance of water leases as a tool to secure water for the environment.
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From principles to action: Applying the National Research Council's principles for effective decision support to the Federal Emergency Management Agency's watch officeThe National Research Council (NRC) proposed six principles for effective decision support in its 2009 report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. We structured a collaborative project between the Federal Emergency Management Agency Region R9 (FEMA R9), the Western Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service (WR-NWS), and the Climate Assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS) at the University of Arizona around the application of the NRC principles. The goal of the project was to provide FEMA R9's Watch Office with climate information scaled to their temporal and spatial interests to aid them in assessing the potential risk of flood disasters. We found that we needed specific strategies and activities in order to apply the principles effectively. By using a set of established collaborative research approaches we were better able to assess FEMA R9's information needs and WR-NWS's capacity to meet those needs. Despite our diligent planning of engagement strategies, we still encountered some barriers to transitioning our decision support tool from research to operations. This paper describes our methods for planning and executing a three-party collaborative effort to provide climate services, the decision support tool developed through this process, and the lessons we will take from this deliberate collaborative process to our future work and implications of the NRC principles for the broader field of climate services.
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Framing Scenarios of Binational Water Policy with a Tool to Visualize, Quantify and Valuate Changes in Ecosystem ServicesIn the Santa Cruz Watershed, located on the Arizona-Sonora portion of the U.S.-Mexico border, an international wastewater treatment plant treats wastewater from cities on both sides of the border, before discharging it into the river in Arizona. These artificial flows often subsidize important perennial surface water ecosystems in the region. An explicit understanding of the benefits of maintaining instream flow for present and future generations requires the ability to assess and understand the important trade-offs implicit in water-resource management decisions. In this paper, we outline an approach for modeling and visualizing impacts of management decisions in terms of rare terrestrial and aquatic wildlife, vegetation, surface water, groundwater recharge, real-estate values and socio-environmental vulnerable communities. We identify and quantify ecosystem services and model the potential reduction in effluent discharge to the U.S. that is under scrutiny by binational water policy makers and of concern to stakeholders. Results of service provisioning are presented, and implications for policy makers and resource managers are discussed. This paper presents a robust ecosystem services assessment of multiple scenarios of watershed management as a means to discern eco-hydrological responses and consider their potential values for future generations living in the borderlands.
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Mapping a Wind–Modified Urban Heat Island in Tucson, Arizona (with Comments on Integrating Research and Undergraduate Learning)Tucson, Arizona, is an example of the many cities in the southwestern United States experiencing rapid growth and urban sprawl over the last several decades. The accompanying extensive modification of land use and land cover leads to many environmental impacts, including urban heat islands. The primary aim of this paper is to expand knowledge of the phenomenon for Tucson, by quantifying the amount of urban warming, and by mapping temperature patterns over the city and examining related aspects of the local-scale atmospheric circulation. The secondary aim is to document how an applied empirical research project was integrated into an introductory undergraduate climatology class via active learning. The paper begins and concludes with general and practical comments on combining the research and educational aspects of the project. An analysis of 30-yr temporal trends in urban and nonurban minimum temperatures across the region shows the rate of urban warming to be about three-quarters of the general regional warming. Tucson's urban heat island is ~3°C over the last century, with >2°C of this warming in the last 30 years. The annual average urban warming trend over the last three decades is 0.071°C y r 1 with the strongest effect in March and the weakest effect in November. There is evidence that the latter is caused by strong, near-surface winds under stable conditions. A case study is presented comprising field measurements and map analysis of urban temperatures and supporting variables for 13 February 1999. Measurements include comprehensive mapping using vehicle-mounted thermistors and numerous local meteorological observations from around the city. Wind speeds during the field measurements were somewhat stronger than is typical of heat island studies, up to 12 m s_ 1 . Nonetheless, because of terrain-induced flows and land surface heterogeneity, complex temperature patterns were observed. Several transient katabatic flows off surrounding mountain ranges were detected, leading to localized cold pockets. Locally warm areas in other parts of the city are associated with terrain sheltering or local land surface heating. The central city showed a possible urban heating pattern with temperatures ~2°C higher than upwind rural air.
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Field of Dreams or Dream Team? Assessing Two Models for Drought Impact Reporting in the Semiarid SouthwestTo make decisions about drought declarations, status, and relief funds, decision makers need high-quality local-level drought impact data. In response to this need in Arizona the Arizona DroughtWatch program was created, which includes an online drought impacts reporting system. Despite extensive and intensive collaboration and consultation with the intended public participants, Arizona DroughtWatch has had few consistent users and has failed to live up to its goal of providing decision makers or the public with high-quality drought impacts data. Based on an evaluation of the DroughtWatch program, the authors found several weaknesses in the public-participation reporting-system model including that participation was reduced because of participants' over-commitment and time constraints, consultation fatigue, and confusion about the value of qualitative impact reports. Based on these findings, the authors recommend that professional resource agency personnel provide the backbone of drought impacts monitoring to ensure that decision makers receive the high-quality, consistent information they require. Public participation in impacts monitoring efforts can also be improved using this model. Professional observers can help attract volunteers who consider access to high-quality data an incentive to visit the Arizona DroughtWatch site and who may be more likely to participate in impacts monitoring if they see examples of how the information is being used by decision makers.
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Using scale and human agency to frame ranchers’ discussions about socio-ecological change and resilienceResilience is becoming the dominant discourse in research and policy on climate change as well as wider social-ecological change. Resources and assets alone are often not enough to support resilience, especially in the context of multi-scalar change. Human agency, that is the ability to act and make choices that produce desirable outcomes, is critical to responding and thriving in the face of social-ecological change, however agency remains underexplored in the social-ecological change and resilience literature. We use a local knowledge approach to understand the role of human agency in shaping resilience to complex multi-scalar social-ecological changes. This research draws on focus groups and interviews with ranchers and land managers in seven different focal landscapes across the American West to understand how ranchers articulate social-ecological change in western rangelands, how they describe their own agency in responding to such changes, and how local knowledge of agency and social-ecological change can strengthen conceptions of resilience. Ranchers expressed more agency in addressing observed ecological and climatic changes but less agency in navigating multi-scalar sociological, political and land use changes as these processes unfold at scales far beyond the ranch. Several ranchers also provided examples where scale jumping or increasing community human agency created pathways for resilience to multi-scalar processes. This analysis has two main implications for resilience interventions. First, resilience is a complex negotiation of interconnected and multi-scalar processes and climate resilience cannot be separated from other ongoing economic and social processes. Second, human agency is a critical component of resilience that allows for negotiations of multi-scalar social-ecological changes.
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Moving toward the Deliberate Coproduction of Climate Science KnowledgeCoproduction of knowledge is believed to be an effective way to produce usable climate science knowledge through a process of collaboration between scientists and decision makers. While the general principles of coproduction—establishing long-term relationships between scientists and stakeholders, ensuring two-way communication between both groups, and keeping the focus on the production of usable science—are well understood, the mechanisms for achieving those goals have been discussed less. It is proposed here that a more deliberate approach to building the relationships and communication channels between scientists and stakeholders will yield better outcomes. The authors present five approaches to collaborative research that can be used to structure a coproduction process that each suit different types of research or management questions, decision-making contexts, and resources and skills available to contribute to the process of engagement. By using established collaborative research approaches scientists can be more effective in learning from stakeholders, can be more confident when engaging with stakeholders because there are guideposts to follow, and can assess both the process and outcomes of collaborative projects, which will help the whole community of stakeholder-engaged climate-scientists learn about coproduction of knowledge.
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Distinguishing Pronounced Droughts in the Southwestern United States: Seasonality and Effects of Warmer TemperaturesHigher temperatures increase the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere and can lead to greater atmospheric demand for evapotranspiration, especially during warmer seasons of the year. Increases in precipitation or atmospheric humidity ameliorate this enhanced demand, whereas decreases exacerbate it. In the southwestern United States (Southwest), this means the greatest changes in evapotranspirational demand resulting from higher temperatures could occur during the hot–dry foresummer and hot–wet monsoon. Here seasonal differences in surface climate observations are examined to determine how temperature and moisture conditions affected evapotranspirational demand during the pronounced Southwest droughts of the 1950s and 2000s, the latter likely influenced by warmer temperatures now attributed mostly to the buildup of greenhouse gases. In the hot–dry foresummer during the 2000s drought, much of the Southwest experienced significantly warmer temperatures that largely drove greater evapotranspirational demand. Lower atmospheric humidity at this time of year over parts of the region also allowed evapotranspirational demand to increase. Significantly warmer temperatures in the hot–wet monsoon during the more recent drought also primarily drove greater evapotranspirational demand, but only for parts of the region outside of the core North American monsoon area. Had atmospheric humidity during the more recent drought been as low as during the 1950s drought in the core North American monsoon area at this time of year, greater evapotranspirational demand during the 2000s drought could have been more spatially extensive. With projections of future climate indicating continued warming in the region, evapotranspirational demand during the hot–dry and hot–wet seasons possibly will be more severe in future droughts and result in more extreme conditions in the Southwest, a disproportionate amount negatively impacting society.
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Confidence Builders: Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User PerspectivesWater managers, cattle ranchers, and wildland fire managers face several barriers to effectively using climate forecasts. Repeatedly, these decision makers state that they lack any quantitative basis for evaluating forecast credibility. That is because the evaluations currently available typically reflect forecaster perspectives rather than those of users, or are not available in forms that users can easily obtain or understand. Seasonal climate forecasts are evaluated from the perspective of distinct user groups, considering lead times, seasons, and criteria relevant to their specific situations. Examples show how results targeted for different user perspectives can provide different assessments of forecast performance. The forecasts evaluated are the official seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, produced in their present format since December 1994. It is considered how forecast formats can affect the ease, accuracy, and reliability of interpretation, and suggest that the “climatology” designation be modified to better reflect complete forecast uncertainty. A graphical product is presented that tracks time evolution of the forecasts and subsequent observations. The framework for evaluation has multiple quantitative forecast performance criteria that allow individuals to choose the level of sophistication of analysis that they prefer.
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Integrated Assessment as a Step Toward Reducing Climate Vulnerability in the Southwestern United StatesManaging the effects of climate change requires new approaches to develop and deliver relevant climate information to regional and local decision makers, and to infuse that knowledge into their decision support systems. In the southwestern United States an alternative approach to integrated climate assessment is changing how both researchers and stakeholders view climate information and vulnerability. In this region, climate assessment is an ongoing, sustained process to improve climate awareness, change scientific research on climate, build effective research–applications partnerships around climate variability and change, and maintain those partnerships. The multiple activities in this regional climate assessment serve as a pilot for a broader climate services organization in the United States, and both highlight the crucial need for regional climate services and provide important lessons for implementation.
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The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last MillenniumThe distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here power spectra and power laws (β) are estimated from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). The significance of the estimates of spectral densities and β are tested against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (non-climate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly time scale. Although tree-ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of β calculated from long moisture-sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions) and other types of hydroclimate proxies exceed null expectations. Therefore it may be argued that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal-to-multidecadal time scales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.
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River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water management is not pervasive. This study uses a scenario-based approach to explore whether and how people implement forecast information into reservoir operations decisions in a workshop setting. Although it was found that participants do utilize both forecast and observed information, they generally do not utilize probabilistic forecast information in a manner to appropriately minimize risks associated with the tail end of the forecast distribution. This study found strong tendencies for participants to wait for observed information, as opposed to forecast information, before making decisions. In addition, study participants tended to make decisions based on median forecast values instead of considering forecast probability. These findings support the development of quantitative decision support systems to optimally utilize probabilistic forecasts as well as for forecast agencies such as NOAA/NWS to continue investments in work to better understand contexts and environments where forecasts are used or have the potential for use in supporting water management decisions.
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Invasive Species Control Based on a Cooperative GameWe develop a long-term dynamic model for controlling invasive species using the theory of cooperative games. The model is applied to control of invasive buffelgrass in the Arizona desert, which directly competes with indigenous species and can increase wildfire risk. Interest groups care about damages to three threatened resources: saguaro, cactus, riparian vegetation, and buildings. The model optimally allocates labor and a budget to protect these resources by controlling the buffelgrass population over a multi-period planning horizon. The solution is based on computing the Shapley values for the interest groups. A homeowner strategy of creating defensible space around structures to protect against wildfire affords less protection to the other resources. A similar result holds for protection of saguaros, which are also spatially concentrated. Under the optimal solution, groups caring about spatially-dispersed, riparian vegetation would compensate homeowners and groups caring about saguaros for a reallocation of resources toward greater protection of dispersed vegetation. Results highlight the importance of the spatial configuration of players and the resources they wish to protect in invasive species control problems.
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Informing Decisions with a Climate Synthesis Product: Implications for Regional Climate ServicesThe demand for regional climate information is increasing and spurring efforts to provide a broad slate of climate services that inform policy and resource management and elevate general knowledge. Routine syntheses of existing climate-related information may be an effective strategy for connecting climate information to decision making, but few studies have formally assessed their contribution to informing decisions. During the 2010–11 winter, drought conditions expanded and intensified in Arizona and New Mexico, creating an opportunity to develop and evaluate a monthly regional climate communication product—La Niña Drought Tracker—that synthesized and interpreted drought and climate information. Six issues were published and subsequently evaluated through an online survey. On average, 417 people consulted the publication each month. Many of the survey respondents indicated that they made at least one drought-related decision, and the product at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions, some of which helped mitigate economic losses. More than 90% of the respondents also indicated that the product improved their understanding of climate and drought, and that it helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. The results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding and use of climate information in decision making, fulfilling the main goals for the provision of climate services.
