• Developing Evaluation Indicators to Improve the Process of Coproducing Usable Climate Science

      Wall, Tamara U.; Meadow, Alison M.; Horganic, Alexandra; Univ Arizona, Inst Environm; Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada; Institute for the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona; Institute for the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2017-01)
      Resource managers and decision-makers are increasingly tasked with integrating climate change science into their decisions about resource management and policy development. This often requires climate scientists, resource managers, and decision-makers to work collaboratively throughout the research processes, an approach to knowledge development that is often called "coproduction of knowledge." The goal of this paper is to synthesize the social science theory of coproduction of knowledge, the metrics currently used to evaluate usable or actionable science in several federal agencies, and insights from experienced climate researchers and program managers to develop a set of 45 indicators supporting an evaluation framework for coproduced usable climate science. Here the proposed indicators and results from two case studies that were used to test the indicators are presented, as well as lessons about the process of evaluating the coproduction of knowledge and collaboratively producing climate knowledge.
    • Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

      Seo, S. Niggol; Bakkensen, Laura A.; Univ Arizona, Sch Govt & Publ Policy; Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies, Seoul, South Korea; School of Government and Public Policy, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2017-04)
      This paper statistically examines the hypothesis that the level of storm surge, not storm intensity, is primarily responsible for the large number of tropical cyclone fatalities in SouthAsia. Because the potential causal link between intensity and surge can confound statistical inference, the authors develop two fatality models using different assumptions on the relationship between storm surge and intensity. The authors find evidence that storm surge is a primary killer of people in South Asia relative to storm intensity. In a surge-pressure independence model, it is found that a 10-cm increase in storm surge results in a 14% increase in the number of fatalities. In a surge-pressure dependence model, a 10-cm increase in the level of surge not driven by minimumcentral pressure (MCP) leads to 9.9% increase in the number of fatalities. By contrast, a one-millibar (1 hPa) decrease in MCP leads to a 7.3% increase in the number of fatalities, some of which is also attributable to storm surge. In South Asia, adaptation strategies should target a higher level of storm surge instead of higher-intensity storms. Policies to combat surge include permanent relocation, temporary evacuation, changes in building structures, and coastal fortification.
    • Rain Gauges to Range Conditions: Collaborative Development of a Drought Information System to Support Local Decision-Making

      Ferguson, Daniel B.; Masayesva, Anna; Meadow, Alison M.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Univ Arizona, Inst Environm; Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2016-10)
      Drought monitoring and drought planning are complex endeavors. Measures of precipitation or streamflow provide little context for understanding how social and environmental systems impacted by drought are responding. Here the authors report on collaborative work with the Hopi Tribe-a Native American community in the U.S. Southwest-to develop a drought information system that is responsive to local needs. A strategy is presented for developing a system that is based on an assessment of how drought is experienced by Hopi citizens and resource managers, that can incorporate local observations of drought impacts as well as conventional indicators, and that brings together local expertise with conventional science-based observations. The system described here is meant to harness as much available information as possible to inform tribal resource managers, political leaders, and citizens about drought conditions and to also engage these local drought stakeholders in observing, thinking about, and helping to guide planning for drought.