• Lending Sociodynamics and Drivers of the Financial Business Cycle

      J. Hawkins, Raymond; Kuang, Hengyu; Univ Arizona, Coll Opt Sci (AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS, 2017)
      We extend sociodynamic modeling of the financial business cycle to the Euro Area and Japan. Using an opinion-formation model and machine learning techniques we find stable model estimation of the financial business cycle using central bank lending surveys and a few selected macroeconomic variables. We find that banks have asymmetric response to good and bad economic information, and that banks adapt to their peers' opinions when changing lending policies.