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AuthorsDepartment of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona (96)Maddock, Thomas, III (21)Sorooshian, Soroosh (12)Yeh, T.-C. Jim (9)Baird, Kathryn J. (4)Gupta, Hoshin Vijai (4)Maddock, Thomas III (4)Neuman, Shlomo P. (4)Yeh, Tian-Chyi J. (4)Arizona Research Laboratory for Riparian Studies (3)View MoreTypesTechnical Report (101)

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Coal-Fired Energy Development on Colorado Plateau: Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts

Roefs, T. G.; Gum, R. L. (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1974-07)

Analysis of Borehole Infiltration Tests Above the Water Table

Stephens, Daniel Bruce; Neuman, Shlomo P. (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1980-03)

Constant head borehole infiltration tests are widely used for the in situ evaluation of saturated hydraulic conductivities of unsaturated soils above the water table. The formulae employed in analyzing the results of such tests disregard the fact that some of the infiltrating water may flow under unsaturated conditions. Instead, these formulae are based on various approximations of the classical free surface theory which treats the flow region as if it were fully saturated and enclosed within a distinct envelope, the so- called "free surface." A finite element model capable of solving free surface problems is used to examine the mathematical accuracy of the borehole infiltration formulae. The results show that in the hypothetical case where unsaturated flow does not exist, the approximate formulae are reasonably accurate within a practical range of borehole conditions. To see what happens under conditions closer to those actually encountered in the field, the effect of unsaturated flow on borehole infiltration is investigated by means of two different numerical models: A mixed explicit - implicit finite element model, and a mixed explicit -implicit integrated finite difference model. Both of these models give nearly identical results; however, the integrated finite difference model is considerably faster than the finite element model. The relatively low computational efficiency of the finite element scheme is attributed to the large humber of operations required in order to reevaluate the conductivity (stiffness) matrix at each iteration in this highly nonlinear saturated -unsaturated flow problem. The saturated -unsaturated analysis demonstrates that the classical free surface approach provides a distorted picture of the flow pattern in the soil. Contrary to what one would expect on the basis of this theory, only a finite region of the soil in the immediate vicinity of the borehole is saturated, whereas a significant percentage of the flow takes place under unsaturated conditions. As a consequence of disregarding unsaturated flow, the available formulae may underestimate the saturated hydraulic conductivity of fine grained soils by a factor of two, three, or more. Our saturated -unsaturated analysis leads to an improved design of borehole infiltration tests and a more accurate method for interpreting the results of such tests. The analysis also shows how one can predict the steady state rate of infiltration as well as the saturated hydraulic conductivity from data collected during the early transient period of the test.

COLLECTIVE ADJUSTMENT OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF A LARGE AQUIFER

Lovell, Robert E. (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1971-06)

The problem of evaluating the parameters of the mathematical model of an unconfined aquifer is examined with a view toward development of automated or computer -aided methods. A formulation is presented in which subjective confidence ranges for each of the model parameters are quantified and entered into an objective function as linear penalty functions. Parameters are then adjusted by a procedure which seeks to reduce the model error to acceptable limits. A digital computer model of the Tucson basin aquifer is adapted and used to illustrate the concepts and demonstrate the method.

DESIGN OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN

Chaemsaithong, Kanchit,1940- (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1973-06)

This study focuses on the design of water resources systems in developing nations with particular reference to the development of water resources in the Lower Mekong Basin (Khmer Republic, Laos, Thailand, and Republic of South Viet -Nam). The determination of the "best" system in terms of social goals reflecting the economic and social environment of the Mekong countries is the main issue of this dissertation. The imperfection of the usual technique for planning water resources systems, namely, cost -benefit analysis, leads to the use of the standardized cost -effectiveness methodology. To illustrate how the design is accomplished, two distinctly different structural alternatives of possible development in the Lower Mekong Basin are defined. The design process starts from the statements of goals or objectives of water resources development, which are then mapped onto specifications sets in which social needs are represented. Next, the capabilities of alternative systems are determined through simulation in which three 50 -year sequences of synthetic streamflow are generated by a first order autoregressive scheme. The two alternatives are then compared using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. To illustrate how a decision in selecting an alternative system could be reached, ranking of criteria by order of preference is demonstrated. With the choice of either a fixed -cost or fixed- effectiveness approach, the decision to select the best alternative system could be made. At this point, the use of a weighting technique, which is a common fallacy of systems analysis, will be automatically eliminated. The study emphasizes that a systematic design procedure of water resources systems is provided by the standardized cost- effectiveness approach, which possesses several advantages. The approach will suggest and help identify the system closest to meeting the desired economic and social goals of the developing countries in the Lower Mekong Basin. In this connection, the approach will help governments in the preparation of programming and budgeting of capital for further investigations and investments. It is believed that the approach will eliminate unnecessary expenses in projects that are planned on an individual basis or by methods used at present. Further, the approach provides an appropriate mechanism for generating essential information in the decision process. Both quantifiable and non -quantifiable criteria are fully considered. The choice of a fixed -cost or fixed -effectiveness approach will determine the trade -off between these criteria. The study recognizes that research to determine appropriate hydrologic models for monthly streamfiow generation for tributary projects in the Basin is necessary. This leads to another important area of research which is to find the appropriate number of monthly sequences of streamflow to be generated in relation to number of states and decision variables. Research on the design of computer experiments is necessary to improve simulation as a tool to estimate the quantitative effects of a given project.

Simulation of Groundwater Conditions in the Upper San Pedro Basin for the Evaluation of Alternative Futures

Goode, Tomas Charles; Maddock, Thomas, III (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2000)

The creation of the groundwater model of the Upper San Pedro Basin included two developmental phases: the creation of a conceptual and numerical model. The creation of the conceptual model was accomplished through the utilization of Geographic Information System (GIS) software, namely ArcView, used primarily to view and create point, line, and polygonal shapes. The creation of a numerical model was accomplished by the infusion of the conceptual model into a 3D finite difference grid used in MODFLOW groundwater software from the U.S. Geological Survey. MODFLOW computes the hydraulic head (water level) for each cell within the grid. The infusion of the two models (conceptual and numerical) was allowed through the use of Department of Defense Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) software. The time period for groundwater modeling began with predevelopment conditions, or "steady state." Steady state conditions were assumed to exist in 1940. The steady state was used as the initial condition for the subsequent transient analysis. The transient simulation applied historical and current information of pumping stresses to the system from 1940 to 1997. After modeling current conditions, Alternative Futures' scenarios were simulated by modifying current stresses and by adding new ones. The possible future impacts of to the hydrologic system were then evaluated.

A SUPERIOR TRAINING STRATEGY FOR THREE-LAYER FEEDFORWARD ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai; Sorooshian, Soroosh (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1996-03)

A new algorithm is proposed for the identification of three-layer feedforward artificial neural networks. The algorithm, entitled LLSSIM, partitions the weight space into two major groups: the input- hidden and hidden -output weights. The input- hidden weights are trained using a multi -start SIMPLEX algorithm and the hidden -output weights are identified using a conditional linear- least- square estimation approach. Architectural design is accomplished by progressive addition of nodes to the hidden layer. The LLSSIM approach provides globally superior weight estimates with fewer function evaluations than the conventional back propagation (BPA) and adaptive back propagation (ABPA) strategies. Monte -carlo testing on the XOR problem, two function approximation problems, and a rainfall- runoff modeling problem show LLSSIM to be more effective, efficient and stable than BPA and ABPA.

COUPLING STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC HYDROLOGIC MODELS FOR DECISION-MAKING

Mills, William Carlisle (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1980-06)

Many planning decisions related to the land phase of the hydrologic cycle involve uncertainty due to stochasticity of rainfall inputs and uncertainty in state and knowledge of hydrologic processes. Consideration of this uncertainty in planning requires quantification in the form of probability distributions. Needed probability distributions, for many cases, must be obtained by transforming distributions of rainfall input and hydrologic state through deterministic models of hydrologic processes. Probability generating functions are used to derive a recursive technique that provides the necessary probability transformation for situations where the hydrologic output of interest is the cumulative effect of a random number of stochastic inputs. The derived recursive technique is observed to be quite accurate from a comparison of probability distributions obtained independently by the recursive technique and an exact analytic method for a simple problem that can be solved with the analytic method. The assumption of Poisson occurrence of rainfall events, which is inherent in derivation of the recursive technique, is examined and found reasonable for practical application. Application of the derived technique is demonstrated with two important hydrology- related problems. It is first demonstrated for computing probability distributions of annual direct runoff from a watershed, using the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS direct runoff model and stochastic models for rainfall event depth and watershed state. The technique is also demonstrated for obtaining probability distributions of annual sediment yield. For this demonstration, the-deterministic transform model consists of a parametric event -based sediment yield model and the SCS models for direct runoff volume and peak flow rate. The stochastic rainfall model consists of a marginal Weibull distribution for rainfall event duration and a conditional log -normal distribution for rainfall event depth, given duration. The stochastic state model is the same as used for the direct runoff application. Probability distributions obtained with the recursive technique for both the direct runoff and sediment yield demonstration examples appear to be reasonable when compared to available data. It is, therefore, concluded that the recursive technique, derived from probability generating functions, is a feasible transform method that can be useful for coupling stochastic models of rainfall input and state to deterministic models of hydrologic processes to obtain probability distributions of outputs where these outputs are cumulative effects of random numbers of stochastic inputs.

APPLICATION OF BORON ISOTOPE RATIOS FOR IDENTIFYING NITRATE CONTAMINATION SOURCES IN THE GROUNDWATER OF AVRA VALLEY, ARIZONA

Leenhouts, James Merrell; Basset, R. L.; Maddock, Thomas, III (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1994-06)

The stable isotopes of the conservative element boron, 11B and 1°B, have been employed as co- migrating isotopic tracers to determine the origin of nitrate observed in groundwater from a large capacity (2500 gpm) irrigation well in the Avra Valley of southeastern Arizona. The isotopic ratios of the conservative element, boron, provided an identifying signature for various nitrate rich source waters. Additional chemical parameters were also examined to corroborate the isotopic indications. Findings of this investigation indicate that most of the nitrate observed in groundwater from well CMID 18 at the beginning of the 1993 irrigation season was due to municipal wastewater contamination. As the irrigation season progressed, an increasing proportion of nitrate was contributed by irrigation return flow from neighboring agricultural fields.

Stochastic analysis of moisture plume dynamics of a field injection experiment

Ye, Ming; Khaleel, Raziuddin; Yeh, Tian-Chyi J. (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2004-10)

A vadose zone field injection experiment was conducted in the summer of 2000 at theHanford Site, Washington. The unique moisture content database is used to identify the lithology at the field site and to interpret, visualize, and quantify the spatio- temporal evolution of the three -dimensional (3 -D) moisture plume created by the injection experiment. We conducted a hierarchical geostatistical analysis to examine the large -scale geologic structure for the entire field site, and then investigate small -scale features within different layers. Afterward, variogram analysis is applied to the O field measured for seven different days during the injection experiment. Temporal variations of sills and ranges are related to the observed moisture plume dynamics. A visualization of the 3 -D moisture plume evolution illustrates effects of media heterogeneity. Statistics of changes in moisture content as a function of distance reveals large variance near the wetting front and the coefficient of variation increases with decreasing mean.These findings support the gradient- and mean -dependent variability in the moisture content distribution as reported by existing stochastic theories. Spatial moment analysis is also conducted to quantify the rate and direction of movement of the plume mass center and its spatial spreading. The ratio of horizontal to vertical spreading at varying moisture contents suggests moisture- dependent anisotropy in effective unsaturated hydraulic conductivity, confirming existing stochastic theories. However, the principal directions of the spatial moments are found to vary as the moisture plume evolves through local heterogeneity, a feature that has not been recognized in the theories.

A multiobjective global optimization algorithm with application to calibration of hydrologic models

Yapo, Patrice O.; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai; Sorooshian, Soroosh (Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1997-02)

This report presents a new multiple objective optimization algorithm that is capable of solving for the entire Pareto set in one single optimization run. The multi-objective complex evolution (MOCOM-UA) procedure is based on the following three concepts: (1) population, (2) rank-based selection, and (3) competitive evolution. In the MOCOM-UA algorithm, a population of candidate solutions is evolved in the feasible space to search for the Pareto set. Ranking of the population is accomplished through Pareto ranking, where all points are successively placed on different Pareto fronts. Competitive evolution consists of selecting subsets of points (including all worst points in the population) based on their ranks and moving the worst points toward the Pareto set using the newly developed multi-objective simplex (MOSIM) procedure. Test analysis on the MOCOM-UA algorithm is accomplished on mathematical problems of increasing complexity and based on a bi-criterion measure of performance. The two performance criteria are: (1) efficiency, as measured by the ability of the algorithm to converge quickly, and (2) effectiveness, as measured by the ability of the algorithm to locate the Pareto set. Comparison of the MOCOM-UA algorithm against three multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGAs) favors the former. In a realistic application, the MOCOM-UA algorithm is used to calibrate the Soil Moisture Accounting model of the National Weather Service River Forecasting Systems (NWSRFS-SMA). Multi-objective calibration of this model is accomplished using two bi-criterion objective functions, namely the Daily Root Mean Square-Heteroscedastic Maximum Likelihood Estimator (DRMS-HMLE) and rising limb /falling limb (RISE/FALL) objective functions. These two multi-objective calibrations provide some interesting insights into the influence of different objectives in the location of final parameter values, as well as limitations in the structure of the NWSRFS-SMA model.

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