THE FUTURE OF WORLD POWER: AN ANALYSIS OF LONG CYCLE THEORY

Abstract

In 1498, the Portuguese created an interconnected international system by establishing a maritime trade route between Europe and India. The maritime trade route brought unprecedented economic power to the Portuguese, established Portugal as the first world power, and served as the origin for long-cycle theory. Between 1498 and present day there have been four complete world power cycles and the world is currently in the fifth. The world has systematically transitioned from world power cycle to world power cycle every one hundred to one hundred and twenty years. The United States has been in its world power cycle for the over seventy years since the conclusion of World War II. Using historical, quantitative, and theoretical analysis I have analyzed the United States’ current position, and the positions of China and Russia as potential challengers to the world power of the United States. The results are that neither China or Russia are currently in position to over-take the United States as the world power of the international system.