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    Economics of tipping the climate dominoes

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    Author
    Lemoine, Derek cc
    Traeger, Christian P.
    Affiliation
    Univ Arizona, Dept Econ
    Issue Date
    2016-01-18
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
    Citation
    Economics of tipping the climate dominoes 2016, 6 (5):514 Nature Climate Change
    Journal
    Nature Climate Change
    Rights
    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    Greenhouse gas emissions can trigger irreversible regime shifts in the climate system, known as tipping points. Multiple tipping points affect each other's probability of occurrence, potentially causing a 'domino effect'. We analyse climate policy in the presence of a potential domino effect. We incorporate three different tipping points occurring at unknown thresholds into an integrated climate-economy model. The optimal emission policy considers all possible thresholds and the resulting interactions between tipping points, economic activity, and policy responses into the indefinite future. We quantify the cost of delaying optimal emission controls in the presence of uncertain tipping points and also the benefit of detecting when individual tipping points have been triggered. We show that the presence of these tipping points nearly doubles today's optimal carbon tax and reduces peak warming along the optimal path by approximately 1 degrees C. The presence of these tipping points increases the cost of delaying optimal policy until mid-century by nearly 150%.
    Note
    Published online 18 January 2016. 6 month embargo.
    ISSN
    1758-678X
    1758-6798
    DOI
    10.1038/nclimate2902
    Version
    Final accepted manuscript
    Sponsors
    C.P.T. gratefully acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management GEO-1240507.
    Additional Links
    http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2902
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1038/nclimate2902
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