A multi-step automatic calibration scheme (MACS) for river forecasting models utilizing the national weather service river forecast system (NWSRFS)

Abstract

Traditional model calibration by National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Center (RFC) hydrologists involves a laborious and time -consuming manual estimation of numerous parameters. The National Weather Service River Forecasting System (NWSRFS), a software system used by the RFCs for hydrologic forecasting, includes an automatic optimization program (OPT3) to aid in model calibration. The OPT3 program is not used operationally by the majority of RFC hydrologists who perform calibration studies. Lack of success with the traditional single - step, single-criterion automatic calibration approach has left hydrologists more comfortable employing a manual step-by-step process to estimate parameters. This study develops a Multistep Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS), utilizing OPT3, for the river forecasting models used by the RFCs: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA). and SNOW-17 models. Sixteen parameters are calibrated in three steps, replicating the progression of manual calibration steps used by NWS hydrologists. MACS is developed by minimizing different objective functions for different parameters in a step -wise manner. Model runs are compared using the MACS optimized parameters and the manually estimated parameters for six basins in the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) forecast area. Results demonstrate that the parameters obtained via the MACS procedure generally yield better model performance than those obtained by manual calibration. The MACS methodology is a time-saving approach that can provide prompt model forecasts for NWS watersheds.