BAYES RISK ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL REGRESSION ESTIMATES OF FLOODS
dc.contributor.author | Metler, William Arledge, 1944- | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-07-26T18:49:21Z | |
dc.date.available | 2016-07-26T18:49:21Z | |
dc.date.issued | 1973-02 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10150/617586 | |
dc.description.abstract | This thesis defines a methodology for the evaluation of the worth of streamflow data using a Bayes risk approach. Using regional streamflow data in a regression analysis, the Bayes risk can be computed by considering the probability of the error in using the regionalized estimates of bridge or culvert design parameters. Cost curves for over- and underestimation of the design parameter can be generated based on the error of the estimate. The Bayes risk can then be computed by integrating the probability of estimation error over the cost curves. The methodology may then be used to analyze the regional data collection effort by considering the worth of data for a record site relative to the other sites contributing to the regression equations. The methodology is illustrated by using a set of actual streamflow data from Missouri. The cost curves for over- and underestimation of the streamflow design parameter for bridges and culverts are hypothesized so that the Bayes risk might be computed and the results of the analysis discussed. The results are discussed by demonstrating small sample bias that is introduced into the estimate of the design parameter for the construction of bridges and culverts. The conclusions are that the small sample bias in the estimation of large floods can be substantial and that the Bayes risk methodology can evaluate the relative worth of data when the data are used in regionalization. | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | en |
dc.publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 16 | en |
dc.rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents | en |
dc.source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. | en |
dc.subject | Flood forecasting | en |
dc.subject | Stream measurements -- Statistical methods. | en |
dc.title | BAYES RISK ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL REGRESSION ESTIMATES OF FLOODS | en_US |
dc.type | text | en |
dc.type | Technical Report | en |
dc.contributor.department | Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona | en |
dc.description.collectioninformation | This title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu. | en |
refterms.dateFOA | 2018-09-11T14:37:17Z | |
html.description.abstract | This thesis defines a methodology for the evaluation of the worth of streamflow data using a Bayes risk approach. Using regional streamflow data in a regression analysis, the Bayes risk can be computed by considering the probability of the error in using the regionalized estimates of bridge or culvert design parameters. Cost curves for over- and underestimation of the design parameter can be generated based on the error of the estimate. The Bayes risk can then be computed by integrating the probability of estimation error over the cost curves. The methodology may then be used to analyze the regional data collection effort by considering the worth of data for a record site relative to the other sites contributing to the regression equations. The methodology is illustrated by using a set of actual streamflow data from Missouri. The cost curves for over- and underestimation of the streamflow design parameter for bridges and culverts are hypothesized so that the Bayes risk might be computed and the results of the analysis discussed. The results are discussed by demonstrating small sample bias that is introduced into the estimate of the design parameter for the construction of bridges and culverts. The conclusions are that the small sample bias in the estimation of large floods can be substantial and that the Bayes risk methodology can evaluate the relative worth of data when the data are used in regionalization. |